Find out when the dollar will be bought again, adjusting to the dollar’s appreciation

There was a scene where the dollar-yen pair rebounded from the 136-yen level to around 135.20 in the Tokyo market. Former Vice Minister Nakao responded to the statement that the current depreciation of the yen is not good for the Japanese economy, the role of monetary policy in the depreciation of the yen is clear, and the possibility of foreign exchange intervention cannot be ruled out.

Also, after the parliamentary testimony of FRB Chairman Powell yesterday, there was a dollar sale. Strong commitment to return to 2% inflation. The US economy is very strong and can deal with tightening measures, etc., and there was no noticeable change from the contents of the press conference after the latest FOMC. He reiterated the view that achieving a soft landing is extremely difficult. The euro dollar and the pound dollar were repulsing, and the dollar buying tendency before the parliamentary testimony was reversed.

Whether it is former Finance Minister Nakao or FRB Chairman Powell, the market seems to be quite nervous about what financial officials say. Although interest rate differentials are strongly conscious, it seems undeniable that short-term dollar buying has gone too far. FRB Chairman Powell’s parliamentary testimony will be held today at the House Finance Committee.

Although the dollar’s appreciation and the yen’s depreciation have been adjusted, the major trend remains unchanged, and we believe that the yen’s depreciation and the dollar’s appreciation. We plan to buy and attack where the dollar-yen depreciation has subsided. The guideline for tonight is 135.00. Pay attention to whether it cuts in here greatly or stops lowering.

More Insights

🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the Middle East remain high. Both sides — the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other — continue to signal their willingness to prolong the conflict, with no clear signs of resolution. The situation has effectively entered a phase of strategic stalemate, where each side is testing the other’s endurance. 🛢 Oil as the Key Barometer To gauge the market impact of the Middle East crisis, crude oil futures have become the most important indicator. Key concerns include: Risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz Potential disruptions to global oil supply Rising inflationary pressure However: The panic selling in equities has somewhat eased The FX market currently lacks strong directional momentum 💱 FX Market Basic structure Geopolitical crisis → USD buying But at the moment: Position adjustments Headline-driven reactions Interest rate expectations are all interacting. As a result, the market is trading in a nervous range-bound environment, with no decisive catalyst for a sustained USD rally. 🇺🇸 Trump Administration Developments Policies from President Donald Trump are also attracting market attention. Higher oil prices could lead to: Stronger inflation pressure Rising political dissatisfaction ahead of midterm elections According to reports, the administration is considering measures such as: Restrictions on Russian oil exports Intervention in oil futures markets 👉 These steps may indicate efforts to find an exit path from the conflict. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Iran may also be experiencing depletion of missiles and weapon systems. 📊 Tonight’s Major Event 🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Report (Nonfarm Payrolls) Market expectations: Indicator Forecast Previous Nonfarm Payrolls +55K +130K Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% Released simultaneously: U.S. Retail Sales Indicator Forecast Month-over-month -0.3% Ex-auto 0.0% 👉 The key focus will be deviation from expectations. However: The approaching weekend Ongoing war-related headlines may limit the durability of any market reaction. 📊 Other Economic Data Eurozone Final GDP U.S. Business Inventories Canada Ivey PMI Brazil Industrial Production 🎙 Central Bank Events Scheduled speakers include: Mary Daly Jeffrey Schmid Susan Collins Piero Cipollone Isabel Schnabel Additionally, a global central bank conference will discuss: “The U.S. dollar’s role as a safe-haven asset.” 📈 New Market Theme: Rate Hike Expectations The chain reaction: Middle East conflict → Higher oil prices → Rising inflation is bringing back interest rate hike expectations. European short-term rate market ECB rate hike probabilities: Year-end: 80% July: 50% Bank of Japan April hike probability: 50% (according to former BOJ board member Maeda) However, markets may increasingly focus on recession risks rather than rate differentials. 🧭 Summary The current market is dominated by war-related headlines. Key drivers: Oil prices Geopolitical developments U.S. employment data At the same time: Panic selling in equities has eased FX markets have lost clear direction For now, the environment can be summarized as: “Markets move on war headlines and adjust on economic data.” This dynamic is likely to continue in the near term.

🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the

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