USD Buying Returns as Markets Wait for Trump Comments | Focus on Middle East and U.S. Retail Sales
■ Market Overview
Markets have once again shifted into “waiting for Trump” mode.
- Iran ceasefire deadline postponed to the 22nd
- The U.S. maintains its willingness to continue negotiations
- However, Iran has not officially confirmed participation
→ Uncertainty remains high,
and safe-haven USD buying has returned
The U.S. Dollar Index also moved higher,
pushing markets back into a cautious risk environment.
■ FX Market Dynamics
- U.S. Dollar Index: Rose from 98.06 to 98.30
- Broad USD buying resumed
→ Markets are focusing more on the risk of failed negotiations
than on hopes for diplomatic progress
■ Core Market Theme
Markets are pricing “failure risk” more than “ceasefire optimism”
- Ongoing negotiations → supportive
- No confirmed Iranian delegation → distrust remains
→ Markets are extremely sensitive to headlines
■ Key Focus (Top Priority)
① Donald Trump interview on CNBC
→ A single comment could trigger major volatility
② U.S. Retail Sales (March)
Forecast: +1.4%
Ex-auto also expected at +1.4%
→ Key test of U.S. consumer strength
■ Scenario Outlook
① Trump takes a hardline stance
→ Oil rises
→ Safe-haven USD buying accelerates
② Signals of negotiation progress
→ USD selling resumes
→ Risk-on sentiment returns
③ Strong Retail Sales
→ Confirms resilience of the U.S. economy
→ Supports USD buying
■ Strategy Points
- Trump headlines matter more than economic data today
- Focus on the quality of Retail Sales, not just the headline number
- Keep positions lighter and assume sudden volatility
■ Summary
The current market is:
“A market that moves more on one sentence than on economic data.”
→ Trump’s comments are the main driver
→ Retail Sales serve as confirmation
→ Most important skill now:
Immediate reaction to headlines
