Oil-Led Nervous Market at the Start of the Week | USD/JPY Battles Around 159
■ Market Overview
The market opened the week with oil as the primary driver.
- Iran showing a negative stance toward negotiations
- Renewed concerns over a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz
- Approaching temporary ceasefire deadline
→ Geopolitical risks are once again back in focus
NY crude oil moved sharply:
$85 → $91, before pulling back toward the $89 area
→ Higher oil prices supported both USD strength and JPY weakness
■ FX Market Dynamics
- USD/JPY: Rose from the mid-158s into the 159 area
- EUR/JPY: Broke to fresh highs
- GBP/JPY: Also reached new highs
→ Continued JPY selling led mainly by cross-yen pairs
During the London session:
- Iran rejected negotiations
- Earthquake reports in the Tohoku region of Japan
→ JPY selling accelerated further
■ Core Market Theme
“Oil = JPY market” remains the dominant structure
- Rising oil → JPY weakness
- Geopolitical escalation → USD buying
→ Double pressure: JPY selling + USD buying
■ Key Focus (Top Priority)
- Oil prices (can crude hold above $90?)
- Progress or failure in Iran negotiations
- Headlines related to the Strait of Hormuz
→ This is now completely a headline-driven market, far more than a data-driven one
■ Scenario Outlook
① Oil rises again
→ Continued JPY weakness
→ USD/JPY moves back toward 160
② Oil reverses lower
→ JPY buying returns
→ Correction toward 158
③ Mixed headlines
→ Range market centered around 159
■ Today’s Key Point
- Federal Reserve blackout period
→ No monetary policy guidance available
→ The market is now entirely dependent on
Middle East developments + Oil
■ Strategy Points
- Oil is the top priority
- Watch the strength of JPY crosses
- React immediately to headlines
■ Summary
The current market is:
“Oil moves on headlines, and FX moves on oil.”
→ Main path for USD/JPY still points toward 160
→ But sharp reversals must always be respected
