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💱 Will the Dollar Maintain Its Trend into Next Week? Key U.S. Data Today: Retail Sales & More

💱 Will the Dollar Maintain Its Trend into Next Week?
Key U.S. Data Today: Retail Sales & More

📉 Weekly Market Summary
This week saw an overall bias toward dollar selling, though market moves were sensitive to individual data releases and policy comments.

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (early August)

  • Job growth slowed.

  • Prior two months’ figures revised sharply lower.

  • September FOMC 25bp rate cut probability rose to ~90%.

U.S. CPI (Tue)

  • Headline: +2.7% YoY (below forecast)

  • Core: +3.1% YoY (accelerated)
    → Dollar sold on increased rate cut expectations.

U.S. PPI (Thu)

  • Headline: +3.3% YoY

  • Core: +3.7% YoY (sharp acceleration)
    → Dollar rebounded on renewed inflation concerns.

Comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent

  • Called for a 50bp cut in September, saying rates should fall to 1.50%.

  • Urged BoJ to raise rates.

  • Later softened stance, stating she had not “instructed the Fed.”

  • Strong PPI and her clarification reduced 50bp cut expectations; hold probability rose to ~7%.

  • 25bp cut probability remains elevated around 93%.

📊 Key Data Today (Aug 15 – Overseas Sessions)

  • U.S. Retail Sales (Jul): +0.6% m/m expected (prev. +0.6%)

  • Ex-auto: +0.3% expected (prev. +0.5%)

  • NY Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug)

  • U.S. Import Price Index (Jul)

  • U.S. Export Price Index (Jul)

  • U.S. Industrial Production (Jul)

  • U.S. Business Inventories (Jun)

  • Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug prelim.)

  • TIC Net Long-Term Flows (Jun)

💵 Dollar Technical View
The Dollar Index has been on a mild downtrend since the start of the week.
Today’s data will determine whether this continues into the weekend.

💹 Short-Term Range Outlook by Pair

Pair Range Key Points
USD/JPY 145.80–147.20 Weak retail sales could push below 145.00
EUR/USD 1.1600–1.1700 Selling pressure near 1.17; post-CPI/PPI consolidation
GBP/JPY 197.50–199.20 Resistance near 200.00 persists; equities support downside
AUD/USD 0.6440–0.6540 RBA rate cut expectations cap upside
USD/CAD 1.3730–1.3840 Weak Canada jobs data could sustain 1.38+
EUR/JPY 169.80–171.20 Cross-yen sentiment improving

⏩ Key Event Next Week

  • Aug 22 (Fri) – Fed Chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole Symposium.

  • Near-term FX trends likely to remain anchored to U.S. rate cut expectations.

📌 Turning Point

  • If tonight’s retail sales miss forecasts → Dollar downside likely to accelerate.

  • If above forecasts → Potential for temporary dollar rebound.

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