๐ฑ Will the Dollar Maintain Its Trend into Next Week?
Key U.S. Data Today: Retail Sales & More
๐ Weekly Market Summary
This week saw an overall bias toward dollar selling, though market moves were sensitive to individual data releases and policy comments.
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (early August)
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Job growth slowed.
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Prior two monthsโ figures revised sharply lower.
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September FOMC 25bp rate cut probability rose to ~90%.
U.S. CPI (Tue)
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Headline: +2.7% YoY (below forecast)
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Core: +3.1% YoY (accelerated)
โ Dollar sold on increased rate cut expectations.
U.S. PPI (Thu)
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Headline: +3.3% YoY
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Core: +3.7% YoY (sharp acceleration)
โ Dollar rebounded on renewed inflation concerns.
Comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent
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Called for a 50bp cut in September, saying rates should fall to 1.50%.
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Urged BoJ to raise rates.
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Later softened stance, stating she had not โinstructed the Fed.โ
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Strong PPI and her clarification reduced 50bp cut expectations; hold probability rose to ~7%.
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25bp cut probability remains elevated around 93%.
๐ Key Data Today (Aug 15 โ Overseas Sessions)
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U.S. Retail Sales (Jul): +0.6% m/m expected (prev. +0.6%)
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Ex-auto: +0.3% expected (prev. +0.5%)
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NY Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug)
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U.S. Import Price Index (Jul)
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U.S. Export Price Index (Jul)
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U.S. Industrial Production (Jul)
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U.S. Business Inventories (Jun)
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Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug prelim.)
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TIC Net Long-Term Flows (Jun)
๐ต Dollar Technical View
The Dollar Index has been on a mild downtrend since the start of the week.
Todayโs data will determine whether this continues into the weekend.
๐น Short-Term Range Outlook by Pair
| Pair | Range | Key Points |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 145.80โ147.20 | Weak retail sales could push below 145.00 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1600โ1.1700 | Selling pressure near 1.17; post-CPI/PPI consolidation |
| GBP/JPY | 197.50โ199.20 | Resistance near 200.00 persists; equities support downside |
| AUD/USD | 0.6440โ0.6540 | RBA rate cut expectations cap upside |
| USD/CAD | 1.3730โ1.3840 | Weak Canada jobs data could sustain 1.38+ |
| EUR/JPY | 169.80โ171.20 | Cross-yen sentiment improving |
โฉ Key Event Next Week
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Aug 22 (Fri) โ Fed Chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole Symposium.
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Near-term FX trends likely to remain anchored to U.S. rate cut expectations.
๐ Turning Point
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If tonightโs retail sales miss forecasts โ Dollar downside likely to accelerate.
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If above forecasts โ Potential for temporary dollar rebound.
