📊 Middle East Risk Persists as Central Bank Week Begins — FX Markets Turn Cautious and Volatile

---

■ Market Overview

Today’s FX market has been shaped by two major forces:

• Geopolitical risk from the Middle East

• Position adjustments ahead of major central bank events this week

Fighting continues in the Middle East, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively under blockade conditions.

This strait is a critical global energy artery through which:

• Around 20–30% of global oil shipments

• About 20% of global LNG shipments

must pass.

As long as shipping disruptions continue, the market will continue to price the following chain reaction:

Oil supply risk → Inflation pressure → Rising interest rate concerns

U.S. President Donald Trump has asked allied nations to escort oil tankers through the strait.

However, many analysts question the effectiveness of escorts in such a narrow and strategically vulnerable waterway, suggesting that improvements in the situation may take time.

---

■ FX Market Developments

The current market structure is relatively straightforward:

Geopolitical risk → Safe-haven dollar buying

However, because major central bank meetings are scheduled this week, traders are reluctant to build large positions, leading to more corrective and range-bound price action.

During the London session, the U.S. Dollar Index declined slightly.

Dollar Index

• Range: 100.48 → 100.18

• Currently: around 100.24

This movement reflects position adjustments ahead of key policy events, with the index fluctuating around last Friday’s New York close of 100.36.

---

■ Major Events This Week

This week features a cluster of major central bank policy meetings.

Schedule

March 17

• 🇦🇺 Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)

March 18

• 🇨🇦 Bank of Canada

• 🇺🇸 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)

March 19

• 🇯🇵 Bank of Japan

• 🇬🇧 Bank of England

• 🇪🇺 European Central Bank

Current Market Expectations

However, central banks may differ in how they assess inflation risks linked to rising oil prices.

As a result, policy statements and press conferences could trigger strong market reactions.

---

■ Key Economic Data Today

🇨🇦 Canada

• Housing Starts

• CPI

🇺🇸 United States

• New York Fed Manufacturing Index

• Industrial Production

• Capacity Utilization

• NAHB Housing Market Index

However, because markets are focused on upcoming policy meetings, the impact of economic data may remain limited in the short term.

---

■ Key Market Drivers

The current market is being driven by three major pillars:

1️⃣ Middle East geopolitical risk
2️⃣ Oil prices
3️⃣ Central bank policy expectations

In the short term, the strongest relationships remain between:

• Oil

• Commodity currencies

• The U.S. dollar

These correlations are likely to remain a dominant theme in FX markets.

---

■ Trading Perspective

This week’s market environment is likely to become event-driven.

Key risks include:

• Position adjustments ahead of central bank decisions

• Sudden moves triggered by geopolitical headlines

• Sharp swings in oil prices

In particular, the following meetings could significantly increase volatility in yen crosses:

• FOMC

• Bank of Japan

• Bank of England

For traders, this may not be a week to predict a single clear direction.

Instead, it may be more effective to remain flexible and react to both central bank developments and Middle East news.