Tonight, the U.S. FOMC will announce a rate cut for the first time in four years. The market is divided over whether the cut will be 50 basis points or 25 basis points. According to the latest CME FedWatch, expectations for a 50bp cut stand at 65%, while 25bp is at 35%, indicating a strong inclination towards a larger cut. However, many economists predict a 25bp cut, leading to a split in forecasts.
Personally, I feel that the market may be overly pessimistic about the U.S. employment situation, and I believe a 25bp cut would be an appropriate pace. Regardless of the outcome, significant market reactions are expected, so I plan to approach the results cautiously before making any decisions.
Market Situation:
- USD/JPY has fluctuated sharply between 139 and 142, reflecting market expectations ahead of the FOMC announcement.
- The statements and economic forecasts following the FOMC, as well as Chairman Powell’s press conference, are key points of interest, as these factors could significantly influence the dollar’s movement.
Key Indicators to Watch Today:
- South Africa Consumer Price Index (August)
- Eurozone Consumer Price Index (HICP, final) (August)
- U.S. Housing Starts (August)
- Minutes from the Bank of Canada meeting (held on September 4)
Strategy:
Given the uncertainty surrounding the market reaction post-FOMC, taking positions beforehand carries significant risk. Therefore, I plan to first observe the results and calmly monitor market movements, allowing me to flexibly determine the timing for any potential entries.
