USD/JPY Climbs Back Toward the Upper 157s | CPI, Intervention Risk, and Middle East Tensions Raise Market Stress
■ Today’s Market Summary
USD/JPY has once again approached the intervention warning zone.
During the Tokyo session, the pair climbed into the upper 157 range.
However, later in the afternoon,
the market suddenly dropped from around 157.70 to near 156.78.
→ Traders immediately speculated this may have been a warning signal from the Japanese government and BOJ.
■ The Core Nature of the Current Market
“Dollar-buying pressure vs intervention fears”
Dollar bullish factors:
• Crude oil above $100
• Renewed Middle East tensions
• Rising U.S. yields
• Strong U.S. CPI concerns
Yen bullish factors:
• Government and BOJ intervention fears
• Strong defense awareness near 158
→ Resulting in an extremely nervous market environment.
■ Middle East Situation
• Iran continues taking a hardline stance
• Signals regarding 90% uranium enrichment
→ Renewing geopolitical risk concerns.
NY crude oil climbed back above $101.
→ Safe-haven dollar buying has regained momentum.
■ Today’s Most Important Event
• U.S. CPI (21:30 JST)
Forecasts:
• Headline CPI: +3.7%
• Core CPI: +2.7%
→ A hotter-than-expected result would likely accelerate both dollar buying and intervention fears.
■ Key Focus Going Forward (Most Important)
• The 157–158 defense zone
• U.S. CPI results
• Low-liquidity trading hours
• Comments related to Treasury Secretary Bessent
→ Especially during late NY trading and session transition periods, volatility risk remains very high.
■ Possible Scenarios Ahead
① CPI beats expectations
→ Sharp dollar rally
→ USD/JPY approaches 158
→ Intervention risk reaches maximum levels
② Softer CPI
→ Dollar selling pressure
→ Pullback toward the 156 area
③ Continued Middle East deterioration
→ Oil prices remain elevated
→ USD becomes difficult to push lower
■ Strategy Points
• Be cautious chasing moves ahead of major events
• Sudden volatility risk remains extremely high
• Intervention-related headlines take top priority
■ Summary
The current market can be described as:
“A market where all the bullish dollar factors exist — but every rally risks being stopped.”
→ Middle East tensions, CPI, and intervention fears are all unfolding simultaneously.
→ The most important focus now is:
whether USD/JPY can sustain moves after CPI and how the market reacts around the 158 level.
