📊 Technical Analysis | May 11, 2026
■ Overall Summary
The picture is becoming very clear.
The market has shifted back toward:
“Broad Dollar Weakness + Risk-On”
However, this time it is not just:
“U.S. equities leading alone.”
Instead, the rally now includes:
Commodity currencies
Cross-yen pairs
NASDAQ
BTC
Silver
creating a much broader risk-on environment.
■ Current Market Leaders
1st: NASDAQ100
Clearly the strongest market.
Bullish across nearly all timeframes.
AI-related capital inflows continue aggressively.
2nd: S&P 500
Also extremely strong.
Dip-buying remains highly effective.
3rd: EUR/USD
Dollar weakness trend continues.
Very clean bullish structure.
4th: AUD/USD
Strong momentum.
Driven by risk-on sentiment and commodity currency buying.
5th: Silver (XAG/USD)
Still exceptionally strong.
Even stronger than gold.
Speculative money continues flowing aggressively into silver.
■ USD/JPY
Important point.
The pair is rebounding short term,
but the daily trend remains bearish.
In other words:
“Sell-the-rally caution”
still remains active.
Even above 157,
the pair has not fully recovered structurally.
■ Cross-Yen Pairs
This sector remains very strong.
EUR/JPY
Bullish even on the hourly structure.
AUD/JPY
Very clean bullish momentum.
NZD/JPY
Still extremely strong.
However, caution is necessary.
Many pairs still retain bearish daily structures.
This suggests:
“A short-term risk-on rally”
rather than a fully stable long-term trend.
■ Gold and Silver
This is one of the most important themes currently.
Gold
Still somewhat sluggish.
Bearish pressure remains.
Silver
Overwhelmingly strong.
This means the market is choosing:
“Silver as a speculative risk asset”
rather than:
“Gold as a defensive safe haven.”
This is a classic:
“Speculative risk-on environment.”
■ Crude Oil
WTI is recovering moderately,
but no longer showing the extreme strength seen previously.
In other words:
This is not an energy-driven market.
■ European Equities
Quite weak overall.
DAX
Broad weakness.
CAC40
Also weak.
FTSE
Even weaker.
This suggests:
Continued U.S. market dominance.
■ Nikkei 225
Very important.
Short term is slightly weak,
but the daily trend remains bullish.
Meaning:
The market still views dips as buying opportunities.
■ BTC
Very strong again.
Capital inflows are returning.
Correlation with NASDAQ remains extremely high.
■ Current Market Structure
Strong Assets
NASDAQ
S&P500
EUR/USD
AUD/USD
BTC
Silver
AUD/JPY
NZD/JPY
Weak Assets
U.S. Dollar
European equities
Gold (lagging silver)
USD/CHF
■ Most Important Point This Time
The market is currently concentrating capital into:
“AI-related stocks + speculative assets”
Especially:
NASDAQ
BTC
Silver
Their strength is highly symbolic of the current environment.
Meanwhile,
European equities are being left behind.
■ Risk Warning
The market is becoming:
“Very hot.”
In particular:
Silver
NASDAQ
BTC
all appear increasingly overheated.
The risk of sudden short-term corrections remains high.
■ Final Conclusion
The market theme is now very clear:
Dollar Weakness
AI-driven Risk-On
Speculative Capital Inflows
Currently, the cleanest long positions remain:
NASDAQ100
EUR/USD
AUD/USD
BTC
XAG/USD
AUD/JPY
Meanwhile, weakness remains in:
European equities
USD-related assets
Defensive sectors
