Range-Bound USD/JPY Amid Middle East Risks and Intervention Concerns
■ Today’s Market Summary
USD/JPY continues to be driven by:
• Middle East tensions → Safe-haven dollar buying
• Intervention concerns → Limited upside
→ As a result, price action remains difficult in both directions.
Iran’s proposal is viewed as difficult for the U.S. to accept,
and concerns over a prolonged conflict continue to weigh on market sentiment.
NY crude oil briefly touched the $100 range,
providing underlying support for USD/JPY.
■ FX Market Overview
• USD/JPY: Mainly trading in the upper 156 to lower 157 range
→ Strong intervention concerns above 157
• EUR/USD: Mainly around the 1.17 level
→ ECB rate hike expectations vs safe-haven dollar demand
• GBP/USD: Limited directional momentum
→ Supported by BOE tightening expectations
■ The Core Nature of the Current Market
“A market trapped between intervention risk above and oil prices below”
• Higher oil prices → Yen weakness pressure
• Intervention concerns → Yen strength pressure
→ Clear trend formation remains difficult.
■ Key Focus Going Forward (Most Important)
• Situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz
• Crude oil prices (whether $100 can be maintained)
• Japanese authorities’ intervention stance
→ These are now the market’s primary focus.
■ Possible Scenarios Ahead
① Continued rise in oil prices
→ USD/JPY remains supported
→ Another attempt toward the 157 range
② Renewed intervention fears
→ Upside capped
→ Pullback toward the 156 range
③ Lack of new catalysts (Most likely)
→ Continued 156–157 range trading
■ Cross Yen Pairs
• EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY remain relatively firm
→ Dip-buying sentiment remains dominant
However,
if intervention hits USD/JPY, cross-yen pairs could also fall sharply.
■ Strategy Points
• Be cautious chasing above 157
• Focus on short-term range trading
• Prioritize oil prices and geopolitical headlines
■ Conclusion
The current market is:
“A tense market disguised as a stagnant one.”
→ Upside capped by intervention
→ Downside supported by oil
→ The biggest focus now is waiting for a catalyst strong enough to break the range.
