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πŸ—žοΈ USD and JPY Both Weaken β€” Will the Trend Continue Overseas?

πŸ—žοΈ USD and JPY Both Weaken β€” Will the Trend Continue Overseas?

🎯 Today’s Theme

Tokyo saw a mixed market: USD weakness and JPY weakness happening simultaneously.
The key question now is whether this pattern continues in London and New York.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Why the Dollar Weakened

β‘  Trump’s State of the Union Address

  • No new aggressive policy surprises

  • Limited specifics on further tariff escalation

  • Emphasis on diplomatic resolution regarding Iran

πŸ‘‰ Markets unwound part of the prior day’s USD strength.

β‘‘ Strong Australian CPI

  • AUD buying accelerated

  • AUD/USD rose sharply

  • Indirect pressure on the USD

πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ Why the Yen Weakened

β‘  Reports of PM Takaichi’s reluctance toward rate hikes

  • Early BOJ tightening expectations faded

β‘‘ BOJ Board Appointments

  • Toichiro Asada (perceived reflation-leaning)

  • Ayano Sato (not strongly hawkish)

πŸ‘‰ Expectations of accelerated normalization declined β†’ JPY selling

β‘’ Global Equity Strength

  • Korean equities surged

  • Nikkei hit an intraday record high

πŸ‘‰ Risk-on sentiment β†’ Yen selling

πŸ’± Early London Session

Yen selling resumed.

  • USD/JPY climbed to 156.66 (highest since Feb 9)

  • Currently around 156.41

The 156 handle historically acts as resistance,
and upside momentum may slow near this zone.

πŸ“Š Overseas Market Focus

Few major U.S. data releases today:

  • MBA Mortgage Applications only

πŸ‘‰ Thin macro calendar increases the likelihood of position adjustments.

πŸŽ™ Speakers & Events

  • Barkin, Schmid, Musalem (Fed officials)

  • U.S. crude inventory data

  • $28B 2-year FRN auction

  • $70B 5-year Treasury auction

πŸ“Œ Watch U.S. yields closely.

πŸ“ˆ Equity Markets

  • European and U.S. futures remain firm

  • Nvidia earnings after the close

If equities continue higher,
JPY weakness may persist.

πŸ”Ž What to Watch

βœ” Will Tokyo’s JPY weakness continue overseas?
βœ” Can USD/JPY stabilize above 156?
βœ” U.S. yield direction
βœ” Equity market sentiment

🧭 Conclusion

The dollar is in mild correction mode,
but the yen remains weak.

The structure is β€œUSD weak Γ— JPY weak.”

In overseas markets:

  • Some consolidation pressure is possible

  • However, if equities stay strong, yen weakness may continue

The battle around the 156 level becomes the near-term pivot.

Momentum is not extreme,
but the market may remain yen-driven in the short run.

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