Forex Top Team

Back to all insights

💹 European PMIs: UK and Germany Lose Momentum, France Stands Alone — USD/JPY Stalls in a Pre-Weekend, Exhausted Market

💹 European PMIs: UK and Germany Lose Momentum, France Stands Alone — USD/JPY Stalls in a Pre-Weekend, Exhausted Market

— Position-trimming ahead of the long weekend weighs on USD/JPY, but the upside “spark” is not gone

■ USD/JPY: Pre-holiday unwinding dominates, but upside potential still remains

Tokyo trading ahead of the long weekend saw participants lightening positions,
which kept USD/JPY heavy throughout the afternoon—
a textbook example of a “holiday-mode” market.

With a 3-day weekend approaching, profit-taking and position-squaring naturally increased.

However, during overseas hours, the market tends to behave differently:

“Intervention is unlikely today,”
— when that perception spreads, USD buybacks can suddenly accelerate.

Finance Minister Katayama strengthened verbal warnings this morning:

  • “Intervention is included as an option”

  • “We will respond to excessive volatility”

  • “Actions will be taken in line with the US-Japan statement”

But the market reacted only briefly.
Once again, it demonstrated that verbal comments alone do not change the trend.

➡ If intervention risks fade, USD/JPY could gain fresh momentum for another topside test.

● Expected range: 156.80–157.50
The underlying bullish tone remains intact into next week after the holiday.

■ Cross-yen: Broad consolidation, short-term players ready to sell rallies

● EUR/JPY

  • Yesterday: climbed into the 182 yen handle

  • Now: trading mainly mid-181s

  • Daytime: briefly dipped below 181.30

  • Resistance: 181.50 acting as a firm cap

➡ Volatility is calming and upside remains heavy.

● GBP/JPY

  • Yesterday’s high: 206.86

  • This morning: slipped to just above 206.00

  • Afternoon: capped around 206.00

Short-term, GBP/JPY still has enough energy to retest 206.50,
but sellers are waiting above.

➡ Even if it rises, sell orders dominate the landscape.

■ EUR/USD: Trapped in the 1.15 box, rebound potential limited

EUR/USD remains stuck around the mid-1.15s:

  • Downside is well supported

  • But the topside is distant
    → Any rebound is likely to stay within the 1.15 range

With no decisive catalysts, short-term range trading remains the base case.

■ GBP/USD: Could briefly test 1.31, but UK Budget expectations are a major drag

GBP/USD retains a small amount of topside room,
but the market is cautious ahead of next week’s UK Budget announcement.

  • A test of 1.31 is possible

  • But limited upside

  • Sentiment is dominated by caution rather than optimism

➡ Difficult to chase the upside; any pop is likely to fade.

🔍 European PMI (Flash) — UK & Germany Sluggish, France Surprises With Rare Strength

European PMIs lacked a unified direction,
but by country the contrast was sharp:

■ United Kingdom (Nov Flash PMIs)

  • Manufacturing: stronger than expected

  • Services: weaker than expected

  • Composite: fell more than forecast
    → After the release, GBP/USD erased all earlier gains.

■ Germany (Nov Flash PMIs)

  • Manufacturing: worsened

  • Services: worsened

  • Composite: worsened
    → A broadly weak set of numbers.
    Yet EUR’s reaction was muted, suggesting the market already priced in the weakness.

■ France (Nov Flash PMIs)

  • Manufacturing: worsened

  • Services: significantly stronger than expected

  • Composite: beat expectations
    → EUR/USD edged up toward 1.1552 after the release.

With the UK and Germany deteriorating,
France stood out as the only “clear blue sky” in Europe.

More Insights