✅ Market Summary | Can the Risk-On Sentiment Continue? Focus on U.S. CPI Today
Following the surprising announcement of a significant tariff reduction in the U.S.-China trade negotiations, risk appetite surged. USD/JPY spiked from the 145 range to the 148 range, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped over 1,100 points. However, growing concerns over market overheating and potential corrections are emerging.
💬 Key Political & Trade Developments
Today, Finance Minister Kato stated that he will “consider foreign exchange talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent at the upcoming G7 summit,” which the market interpreted as an attempt to curb yen weakness.
USD/JPY has cooled off from its earlier momentum, now consolidating in the low 147s.
While the U.S.-China tariff reduction was significant (115%), partial tariffs remain on both sides, and the 90-day provisional nature of the measure leaves uncertainties.
📊 Key Economic Indicators
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Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (May): A leading indicator of market sentiment
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South Africa Employment Data (Q1): Closely watched amid ongoing fiscal and economic concerns
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India CPI (April): Focused on the impact of energy prices
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U.S. CPI (April): The main market event, with median forecasts at +2.4% YoY headline / +2.8% core
🗣 Speeches & Events
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Conversation between BoE Governor Bailey and Dutch Central Bank Governor Knot
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Events featuring BoE Chief Economist Pill and Irish Central Bank Governor Makhlouf
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President Trump is visiting the Middle East but is reported to possibly attend Ukraine-Russia talks on the 15th—geopolitical risks remain in focus
🎯 Trading Strategy
The key focus today is the U.S. CPI release. Depending on the data, the dollar could shift direction significantly.
→ Base strategy: wait-and-see before the release, then follow the post-announcement trend for short-term trades.
📌 Short-Term Technical Map (15-min / 1H / Daily) | Tuesday, May 13, 2025
| Currency Pair | 15-min Trend | 1H Trend | Daily Trend | Comments / Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | Mild selling pressure | Neutral to bearish | Bullish trend intact | Volatility expected with CPI. If it holds above 147, upside remains. A break below 146.80 risks pullback. |
| EUR/USD | Weak | Neutral to slightly bearish | Downtrend | U.S.-EU tariff worries weighing. Break below 1.0800 targets 1.0720. Favor selling on rallies. |
| GBP/JPY | Bullish | Accelerating | Strong uptrend | Supported by UK-U.S. trade deal. Aiming for the 195 range. Buying dips remains valid post-CPI. |
| AUD/JPY | Firm | Bullish | Testing range top | Political stability and China optimism support buying. 97.80–98.30 is key short-term resistance. |
| CAD/JPY | Slightly firm | Neutral | Capped upside | Trade concerns limit gains. Look to buy dips post-employment data. Caution below 108.00. |
| EUR/JPY | Bullish | Continuing higher | Bullish | Euro strength + yen weakness continue trend. Targeting dip buys around 162.00–163.30. |
| GBP/USD | Neutral | Mildly bullish | Bullish | Pound strength holding, but depends on USD. Key zone around 1.2700; trend direction to be confirmed post-CPI. |
| NZD/USD | Weak | Bearish | Downtrend | 0.5950 is key. A break could trigger further declines. Watch for range breakdown. |
📝 Additional Notes
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Expect limited volatility before CPI; sharp swings possible afterward
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USD/JPY favors a short-term range strategy: sell on rallies, buy on dips
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GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY benefiting from ongoing yen-selling trend
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AUD/JPY and NZD/USD are closely tied to China and commodities
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For EUR/USD, breaking below 1.08 hinges on U.S. inflation results
