📌 BOJ Holds Policy Rate, Announces ETF Sales — Market Reads a Hawkish Signal
■ Policy Decision
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Rates: Unchanged (7–2 vote).
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Board members Takata and Tamura argued for a hike to 0.75%, marking the first dissent under Governor Ueda.
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ETF & REIT Sales:
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BOJ will begin selling its ETF and REIT holdings.
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Ueda explained that “knowledge has been accumulated and operational preparations are complete.”
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Sales pace equals “over 100 years” at current levels, but can be paused or adjusted if necessary.
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Clear emphasis on limiting market disruption.
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Takeaway: Despite the rate hold, the combination of dissenting votes and an exit-focused ETF policy gives the decision a hawkish tone.
■ Governor Ueda’s Press Conference
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Rate Outlook:
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Reiterated that further hikes remain on the table, conditional on wages and inflation trends.
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Suggested that if markets see policy as “done for now,” yen appreciation could reverse.
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ETF/REIT Sales:
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Framed as part of a long-term normalization strategy, conducted with market stability in mind.
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■ Market Reaction
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USD/JPY: Dropped sharply from 148.00 → 147.20, later stabilizing.
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Cross-yen: Broad yen gains were seen across pairs.
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Focus ahead: Whether the October meeting will hint more strongly at a rate hike.
■ Overseas Events to Watch
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Economic Data:
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France: Business Sentiment (Sep)
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Hong Kong: Current Account (Q2)
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Canada: Retail Sales (Jul, forecast –0.8% headline)
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Events:
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US–China leaders’ call
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Fed Governor Bowman (TV interview)
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SF Fed’s Daly at AI-related event
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US Markets: Triple Witching — simultaneous expiry of stock options, futures, and index derivatives.
■ Summary
The BOJ struck a “hold + hawkish signal” balance. The start of ETF/REIT sales marks the first step in a long-term exit plan, while dissenting votes show rising pressure for rate hikes. FX markets reacted with a bout of yen strength, but USD/JPY ultimately settled back into the 147 range, with investors looking ahead to October for clearer guidance on the next move.
