Today, the U.S. markets are closed for Independence Day. The recent sentiment has shifted towards expecting two rate cuts this year, following the weak ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI yesterday. However, this is still data-dependent, and attention is now focused on tomorrow’s U.S. employment report.
With fewer events today, the UK general election takes center stage. Pre-election polls suggest a likely victory for the Labour Party. The market will be watching to see if this translates into a strong or weak performance. The restoration of the crumbling UK healthcare system is expected, potentially leading to increased fiscal spending, which might push UK bond yields higher. Amid expectations of an August rate cut, it will be important to see if there are any changes in market views. The UK DMP Inflation Survey (June) will be released today, providing the latest inflation outlook from UK businesses.
Upcoming economic indicators in overseas markets include the Swiss Consumer Price Index (June), UK Construction PMI (June), and UK DMP Inflation Survey (June). With the NY markets closed for Independence Day, no U.S. economic indicators will be released.
Related speaking events include the ECB minutes (June 6 meeting) and an event with ECB Board Member Panetta. Exit poll reports from the UK general election should also be monitored.
Today, the focus remains on selling USD, following yesterday’s weak ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
