Forex Top Team

EUR/USD Strong Buy – Featured Currency and Technical Analysis (15-Minute Chart) July 4, 2024

**EUR/USD Strong Buy**

EUR/USD is trading around 1.0785, showing a sideways movement. Market activity is subdued as the U.S. market is closed for Independence Day. Tomorrow’s release of the June U.S. employment report could impact the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. It is expected that non-farm payrolls will decrease from 272,000 to 190,000, with average hourly earnings dropping from 4.1% to 3.9% year-over-year and from 0.4% to 0.3% month-over-month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.0%. Data released the previous day showed private sector employment decreased from 157,000 to 150,000, the ISM Services PMI fell from 53.8 points to 48.8 points, and factory orders declined from 0.4% to 0.5%. Meanwhile, data from the Eurozone indicated further slowing inflation, increasing the likelihood of an ECB rate cut.

**GBP/USD Strong Buy**

GBP/USD is trading around 1.2745, reaching a new high since June 13. Market activity is low due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday. The UK is holding parliamentary elections, with the opposition party seen as the favorite. In the U.S., the ISM Services PMI plunged from 53.8 points to 48.8 points, while the S&P Global PMI slightly increased from 55.1 points to 55.3 points. The Fed minutes indicated that additional information is needed for inflation to reach the 2.0% target.

**AUD/USD Buy**

AUD/USD is trading around 0.6715, maintaining the previous day’s upward momentum. Australia’s May trade data showed exports increased by 2.8% and imports by 3.9%, with the trade surplus narrowing from A$6.68 billion to A$5.77 billion. Retail sales increased by 0.6%, and building approvals rose by 5.5%. With the U.S. market closed, investors are focusing on tomorrow’s U.S. employment report.

**USD/JPY Strong Sell**

USD/JPY is trading around 161.50, having reached a record high the previous day, but is now affected by technical factors and decreased trading volume. The ISM Services PMI plunged, and manufacturing orders declined by 0.5%. Japan’s Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.8 points to 49.4 points, indicating continued BoJ policy easing. The BoJ may announce additional tightening measures in July.

**XAU/USD Strong Buy**

XAU/USD is trading around 2355.00, awaiting new market drivers. Market activity is low due to the Independence Day holiday. Tomorrow’s U.S. employment report could significantly impact the Fed’s monetary policy. Fed Chair Powell has emphasized a cautious approach to balancing inflation and the labor market. The Fed’s official forecast suggests 1.5 rate cuts by the end of the year.

More Insights

12th in July 2024, Today’s Options

EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0650: €1.8 billion 1.0690: €1.1 billion 1.0695: €873 million 1.0700: €896 million 1.0800: €1.7 billion 1.0850: €2.4 billion 1.0900: €934 million USD/JPY:

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