Spot Rates at the Time of Publication
EUR/USD 1.1232
USD/JPY 158.08
GBP/USD 1.3240
USD/CHF 0.8301
USD/CAD 1.4209
AUD/USD 0.6980
NZD/USD 0.5622
EUR/GBP 0.8479
Today — October 9
EUR/USD
1.1150 EUR 640 million
1.1200 EUR 1.8 billion
1.1250 EUR 2.5 billion (largest)
1.1255 EUR 912 million
1.1300 EUR 594 million
Current spot: 1.1232
The largest expiry, at 1.1250, is approximately 18 pips above spot, while 1.1200 is around 32 pips below. The current price is bracketed by strikes on both sides, putting the 1.1200–1.1250 range in focus today.
On the upside, 1.1250 and 1.1255 contain a combined EUR 3.412 billion. If the pair rebounds, watch its approach to this zone and whether it can break above and hold once it reaches it.
On the downside, 1.1200 contains EUR 1.8 billion. Watch whether the pair finds support there or breaks below and fails to reclaim the level.
If yields or dollar movements become more influential, prioritize the direction of the market over the potential effect of the options.
USD/JPY
157.00 USD 1.3 billion
157.20 USD 780 million
157.50 USD 883 million
158.00 USD 1.6 billion (largest)
159.00 USD 722 million
Current spot: 158.08
The largest expiry, at 158.00, is very close to spot, approximately 8 pips below. It is a key level today, with a potential return toward 158.00 or consolidation around it in focus ahead of the New York cut.
If spot approaches 158.00, watch whether the level holds or can be reclaimed after a break below.
On the downside, 157.50 is approximately 58 pips below spot, followed by 157.20 and 157.00.
On the upside, 159.00 is farther away, approximately 92 pips above. The immediate focus is whether the pair can move away from the area around 158.00 and sustain its gains.
GBP/USD
1.3100 GBP 1.2 billion (largest)
1.3150 GBP 788 million
1.3300 GBP 759 million
Current spot: 1.3240
The nearest strike is 1.3300, approximately 60 pips above spot. It is a level to watch if the rebound continues.
On the downside, 1.3150 is approximately 90 pips below, while the largest expiry, at 1.3100, is around 140 pips below. Their direct influence near the current price is limited.
USD/CHF
0.8300 USD 520 million
Current spot: 0.8301
The 0.8300 strike is just 1 pip below spot, almost matching the current price. Given its proximity, monitor the short-term reaction around this level.
As the New York cut approaches, watch whether spot consolidates around 0.8300 or moves away in either direction.
USD/CAD
1.4110 USD 545 million
Current spot: 1.4209
The 1.4110 strike is approximately 99 pips below spot. Its direct influence near the current price is limited, making it a level to watch if the decline extends.
AUD/USD
0.6880 AUD 660 million
0.6900 AUD 1.4 billion
0.6950 AUD 904 million
0.7000 AUD 1.1 billion
0.7025 AUD 508 million
0.7045 AUD 713 million
0.7050 AUD 735 million
0.7100 AUD 2.1 billion (largest)
Current spot: 0.6980
The 0.7000 strike is approximately 20 pips above spot, while 0.6950 is around 30 pips below. Both are relatively close and are key short-term levels to watch today.
On a rebound, watch the approach to the round-number level at 0.7000, which contains AUD 1.1 billion, and the reaction once spot reaches it. If the break above continues, 0.7025, approximately 45 pips above spot, is the next reference level.
On a decline, prioritize the reaction at 0.6950. If the pair breaks below and fails to reclaim it, watch 0.6900, approximately 80 pips below spot.
The largest expiry, at 0.7100, totals AUD 2.1 billion but is farther away, approximately 120 pips above spot. The nearer 0.7000 and 0.6950 strikes take priority in the immediate outlook.
NZD/USD
0.5750 NZD 732 million
Current spot: 0.5622
The 0.5750 strike is approximately 128 pips above spot. Its direct influence near the current price is limited, making it a level to watch if a substantial rebound develops.
Other Currency Pairs
EUR/GBP
No notable options information is available for today.
Next Business Day — October 12
The distances below are measured from the spot rates listed above.
EUR/USD
1.1225 EUR 561 million
The 1.1225 strike is approximately 7 pips below spot, placing it close to the current price. If spot remains near this level after the weekend, it becomes the initial potential focal point.
However, the expiry is relatively small compared with today’s strikes at 1.1200 and 1.1250. Monitor the reaction around 1.1225 without assuming strong price pinning.
Other Currency Pairs
USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and EUR/GBP
No notable options information is available for the next business day.
Overall Picture
The main levels to watch today are 1.1200 and 1.1250 in EUR/USD, 158.00 in USD/JPY, and 0.7000 in AUD/USD.
EUR/USD has large expiries above and below spot. If price action settles, trading within the 1.1200–1.1250 range will be worth monitoring.
The largest USD/JPY expiry, at 158.00, is very close to spot, making it important for both its size and proximity. For AUD/USD, watch 0.7000 on a rebound and 0.6950 on a decline.
USD/CHF’s 0.8300 strike is also almost exactly at spot. For the next business day, EUR/USD’s 1.1225 is nearby, while options activity overall is limited.
Trading Strategy
EUR/USD
Focus on the reaction at 1.1250–1.1255 on the upside and 1.1200 on the downside. Watch whether price is rejected after reaching either zone or continues in the direction of a break.
USD/JPY
Use 158.00 as the main decision level. Watch whether the pair holds there or breaks below and fails to reclaim it. If the decline extends, 157.50 is the next level to monitor.
AUD/USD
On a rebound, watch the reaction at 0.7000. On a decline, focus on 0.6950. If the pair breaks above 0.7000 and holds, 0.7025 is the next reference level. If it falls below 0.6950 and fails to recover, watch 0.6900.
USD/CHF
Monitor consolidation around 0.8300 and whether price can sustain a move away from the strike in either direction. Even when a strike is close to spot, options positioning alone should not determine the directional view.
