FOMC Results | July 30, 2026
■ FOMC Decision
The Federal Reserve announced its policy decision at 3:00 a.m. JST, leaving the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75%, in line with market expectations.
The decision passed by a 9–3 vote.
The policy statement acknowledged that inflation remains elevated and continues to reflect, in part, the effects of recent economic shocks.
Although some market participants had expected policymakers to hint at a possible September rate hike, no clear signal was provided.
■ Market Reaction
● U.S. Treasury yields declined, led by the 2-year note.
● Money markets reduced expectations for a September rate hike.
● The U.S. dollar weakened, with USD/JPY falling from the upper 163 area to the mid-163 range.
● Dollar selling continued after the initial announcement, leaving USD/JPY under sustained downward pressure.
● Longer-term Treasury yields moved higher, resulting in a steeper yield curve.
● U.S. equities declined broadly, with the Dow Jones falling roughly 795 points.
● WTI crude oil surged approximately 6.7% amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
● Gold and silver also advanced.
■ Key Comments from Fed Chair Warsh
● The U.S. economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience despite recent shocks.
● The Federal Reserve remains firmly committed to restoring price stability.
● The inflation target remains strictly 2%, with no unofficial tolerance for higher inflation.
● Five years of elevated inflation have created the perception that the Fed’s effective inflation target has drifted above 2%.
● Inflation cannot be resolved within a matter of weeks.
● Economic growth and the labor market remain resilient.
● Strong business investment continues to support economic expansion.
● Higher market interest rates are themselves contributing to tighter financial conditions.
● The Federal Reserve pays close attention to market signals while avoiding excessive intervention.
● Policy decisions will continue to be based on broad economic trends rather than any single data release.
■ Key Market Levels
● Dow Jones: 51,957.19 (-1.51%)
● S&P 500: 7,392.95 (-0.48%)
● Nasdaq Composite: 24,798.83 (-0.35%)
● U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.6366%
● WTI Crude Oil: $84.44 (+6.72%)
● Gold: $4,065.07 (+0.91%)
● Silver: $58.1162 (+1.76%)
● Bitcoin: $64,012 (+0.25%)
■ Bottom Line
Although the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected, the absence of a clear signal pointing toward a September rate hike prompted markets to scale back tightening expectations, triggering broad-based U.S. dollar selling.
Importantly, the dollar’s decline was not limited to the immediate post-FOMC reaction. Selling pressure continued throughout the session, suggesting investors viewed the overall outcome as less hawkish than anticipated. As a result, USD/JPY remains under pressure despite continuing geopolitical risks.
At the same time, Chair Warsh emphasized the strength of the U.S. economy and labor market while reaffirming the Federal Reserve’s unwavering commitment to its 2% inflation objective.
Although the possibility of additional rate hikes has not been ruled out, markets are no longer aggressively pricing in a move at the September meeting.
Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor whether the current wave of U.S. dollar selling continues, while also watching upcoming inflation data to determine whether recent supply-side shocks evolve into broader and more persistent inflationary pressures.
