Technical Analysis — October 12, 2026

Overview

Today’s main themes are continued dollar strength, weakness in the euro and New Zealand dollar, and improving conditions in crude oil and European equities.

USD/JPY is a strong buy across all timeframes. USD/CHF and USD/CAD are also strong buys from the 15-minute chart through the daily chart, showing broad alignment in favor of the dollar. By contrast, EUR/USD, NZD/USD, and EUR/GBP are strong sells across all timeframes.

Among the yen crosses, GBP/JPY is bullish across all timeframes. However, EUR/JPY remains a strong sell on the daily chart, while CHF/JPY is bearish on the hourly chart, leaving clear differences in relative currency strength.

In commodities, WTI is a strong buy from the 15-minute chart through the daily chart. The higher-timeframe buy signals in gold and silver have weakened, with silver turning bearish on both the hourly and daily charts.

Among equity indices, the higher timeframes for the S&P 500 are strong. DAX and the FTSE 100 are strong buys from the short-term charts through the hourly chart. The Nikkei maintains a strong daily buy, but its short-term and hourly charts have turned neutral, weakening alignment across timeframes.

Key Changes Since the Previous Report

Compared with the October 5 report:

• The short-term rebound signals in EUR/USD have disappeared, leaving it strongly bearish across all timeframes. AUD/USD has also shifted from strong short-term and hourly buying to selling.
• USD/JPY is now a strong buy on the 5-minute chart as well, improving alignment across all timeframes.
• GBP/JPY has improved from a daily sell to a buy, bringing its short-term and daily directions into alignment.
• WTI has shifted from hourly and daily selling to strong buying. Natural gas, by contrast, has turned strongly bearish on the hourly chart, conflicting with its daily buy.
• BTC’s strong daily buy has weakened to neutral, and the hourly chart is now bearish. Its setup as a buy candidate is weaker than before.
• The Dow’s daily signal has improved from a strong sell to a buy. The daily signals for DAX and the FTSE 100 have shifted from strong sells to neutral.
• The Nikkei fell from the previous reported level of 69,946.86 to 69,030.92. Its strong daily buy remains, but the short-term charts through the hourly chart are neutral. Price changes are measured against the previous reported levels.

Foreign Exchange

EUR/USD — 1.1184

All timeframes are strong sells. Moving averages and indicators also point strongly lower across the board.

The short-term rebound seen previously has faded, bringing the pair back into alignment with the daily downtrend. EUR/USD is one of the clearest bearish setups in today’s FX market.

The bias is to sell rallies. If the pair rebounds, watch whether selling signals persist on the 15-minute and hourly charts.

GBP/USD — 1.3236

The 5-minute chart is neutral, the 15-minute and hourly charts are strong sells, and the daily chart is a sell.

The higher timeframes remain bearish, but the indicators on the 5-minute chart have turned neutral, suggesting that short-term selling momentum has eased.

The bias is to sell rallies. Watch for the short-term signal to turn lower again and align with the 15-minute chart and above.

USD/JPY — 158.61

All timeframes are strong buys. Moving averages and indicators are also strongly bullish across the board.

The direction is aligned from the short-term charts through the daily chart, making USD/JPY one of the most consistent buy setups in today’s FX market.

The bias favors buying dips. If a short-term pullback develops, it will be important to see whether the buy signals on the 15-minute and hourly charts hold.

USD/CHF — 0.8328

The 5-minute chart is neutral, while the 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are strong buys.

The higher-timeframe buy signals are aligned. On the 5-minute chart, however, the moving averages are bullish while the indicators are strongly bearish.

This is a candidate for buying dips. Wait for the short-term correction to run its course and for the 5-minute chart to turn bullish again.

AUD/USD — 0.6971

The 5-minute chart is a sell, while the 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are strong sells.

The short-term and hourly buy signals from the previous report have disappeared, bringing the pair back into alignment with the daily downtrend. Both moving averages and indicators point lower across all timeframes.

The bias favors selling rallies. Give priority to the current bearish signals rather than carrying forward the previous rebound view.

NZD/USD — 0.5598

All timeframes are strong sells.

The pair remains weak from the short-term charts through the daily chart, with moving averages and indicators aligned to the downside.

Like EUR/USD, NZD/USD is a clear candidate for selling rallies.

USD/CAD — 1.4261

The 5-minute chart is a sell, while the 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are strong buys.

A short-term pullback is underway against the higher-timeframe bullish trend. Moving averages and indicators on the hourly and daily charts are both strongly bullish.

This is a candidate for buying dips. Watch for selling on the 5-minute chart to ease and for price to resume the higher-timeframe direction.

Yen Crosses and Relative Currency Strength

EUR/JPY — 177.39

The 5-minute chart is a strong buy, the 15-minute and hourly charts are neutral, and the daily chart is a strong sell.

A short-term rebound is underway, but it has not extended through the hourly timeframe. On the 15-minute chart, moving averages are strongly bullish while indicators are bearish.

This is a potential sell-the-rally setup in line with the daily trend. Watch for the short-term rebound to weaken.

GBP/JPY — 209.93

The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are strong buys; the daily chart is a buy.

The daily signal has improved from a sell in the previous report. GBP/JPY stands out among the yen crosses for having its short-term and daily directions aligned.

It is a candidate for buying dips. However, the daily moving averages are neutral, so the daily chart is not fully aligned on the buy side.

CHF/JPY — 190.43

The hourly chart is a sell, and the daily chart is neutral.

The strong hourly buy signal from the previous report has weakened. On the hourly chart, moving averages are neutral and indicators are strongly bearish.

Wait for the buy signals to realign before considering longs. Its current strength differs from GBP/JPY, despite both being yen crosses.

AUD/JPY — 110.57

The hourly chart is a strong buy, and the daily chart is neutral.

The hourly buy signal remains in place. The daily chart has improved from a strong sell to neutral, but it has not yet established a bullish direction.

This is a potential dip-buying setup based on the hourly chart. Watch to see whether buying extends to the daily chart.

NZD/JPY — 88.79

The hourly chart is a strong buy, while the daily chart is a strong sell.

The pair is rebounding on the hourly chart, but the daily weakness remains. Together with the strong sell across all timeframes in NZD/USD, the hourly rebound is not enough to confirm a broader New Zealand dollar reversal.

Treat hourly buying as a countertrend rebound against the daily chart.

CAD/JPY — 111.22

The hourly chart is a strong buy, while the daily chart is a strong sell.

Moving averages and indicators on the hourly chart are aligned in a strong buy. The daily downtrend, however, remains intact.

Focus on the short-term rebound. If considering a trade in the daily direction, wait for the hourly buy signal to weaken.

EUR/GBP — 0.8450

All timeframes are strong sells.

The short-term buy signal from the previous report has disappeared, bringing the pair into alignment with the hourly and daily downtrends. The euro is clearly weaker than the pound on a relative basis.

The bias favors selling rallies. Since GBP/USD is bearish, distinguish this relative pound strength against the euro from broad-based pound strength.

AUD/NZD — 1.2451

The hourly and daily charts are strong buys. The 5-hour, weekly, and monthly charts are also strong buys.

The Australian dollar continues to outperform the New Zealand dollar. This relative strength can persist even while AUD/USD is bearish.

This is a candidate for buying dips. The higher timeframes available in this update show clear alignment to the upside.

EUR/CHF — 0.9313

The 5-minute chart is a strong sell, the 15-minute chart is a sell, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a strong sell.

The short-term rebound signals from the previous report have weakened. On the hourly chart, however, moving averages are bearish while indicators are strongly bullish.

This is a potential sell-the-rally setup in line with the daily trend. Watch for the hourly chart to align with the downside.

Commodities

Gold — 4,179.22

The hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a sell.

The strong hourly buy from the previous report has weakened. On the hourly chart, moving averages are bullish while indicators are strongly bearish.

Wait for the buy signals to realign. If considering a trade in the direction of the daily trend, watch for the hourly chart’s neutral signal to resolve.

Gold Futures — 4,202.76

The 5-minute chart is a buy, the 15-minute and hourly charts are neutral, and the daily chart is a sell.

There is a short-term rebound, but buying momentum has weakened compared with the previous report. On the hourly chart, moving averages are bullish while indicators are strongly bearish.

For now, the short-term buy signal alone is not enough to confirm that the rebound will continue.

Silver — 60.7360

The hourly chart is a sell, and the daily chart is a strong sell.

The hourly strong buy from the previous report has disappeared, bringing the pair into alignment with the daily downtrend. Both moving averages and indicators on the hourly chart are bearish.

This is a candidate for selling rallies. The higher-timeframe downside is clearer than in gold.

Silver Futures — 61.013

The 5-minute chart is a buy, the 15-minute chart is neutral, the hourly chart is a sell, and the daily chart is a strong sell.

There is a short-term rebound, but the hourly and daily charts remain bearish. The previous strong hourly buy has faded.

This is a potential sell-the-rally setup. Watch for the short-term rebound to lose momentum.

WTI Crude — 92.57

The 5-minute chart is neutral, while the 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are strong buys.

The hourly and daily sell signals from the previous report have reversed, leaving a clear higher-timeframe buy setup. On the 5-minute chart, however, moving averages are bullish while indicators are strongly bearish.

This is a candidate for buying dips. Watch for the 5-minute chart to align with the bullish higher-timeframe signals after a short-term correction.

Natural Gas — 3.144

The 5-minute chart is a buy, the 15-minute chart is a sell, the hourly chart is a strong sell, and the daily chart is a strong buy.

The hourly buy from the previous report has turned into a sell, while the daily chart has improved from neutral to a strong buy. The timeframes are now sharply divided.

If considering a dip-buy in line with the daily chart, wait for the 15-minute and hourly charts to improve.

Copper — 6.7720

All timeframes are strong buys. Moving averages and indicators are also strongly bullish across the board.

Copper has the clearest buy alignment in today’s commodities list.

The bias favors buying dips.

BTC/USD — 83,493.0

This is the Bitfinex price. The hourly chart is a sell, the daily chart is neutral, and the 5-hour chart is a strong buy.

The strong daily buy from the previous report has weakened to neutral. The hourly and 5-hour signals also point in different directions, breaking the alignment on the buy side.

For now, lower its priority as a dip-buy candidate and wait for the hourly chart to improve and the daily direction to become clearer.

Equity Indices

Dow Jones — 51,654.95

The 5-minute chart is a sell, the 15-minute chart is a buy, the hourly chart is a strong buy, and the daily chart is a buy.

The hourly neutral and daily strong sell signals from the previous report have improved. The higher timeframes are now aligned to the upside.

This is a candidate for buying dips. Watch for selling on the 5-minute chart to ease and for price to resume the direction shown on the 15-minute chart and above.

S&P 500 — 7,811.54

The 5-minute chart is a sell, while the 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are strong buys.

The higher-timeframe strength remains intact. The short-term chart is correcting, but moving averages and indicators on the hourly and daily charts are strongly bullish and aligned.

The bias favors buying dips.

Nasdaq 100 — 30,883.15

The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are buys, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is a strong buy.

The daily uptrend remains intact, but the hourly strong buy from the previous report has weakened to neutral. On the hourly chart, moving averages are bullish while indicators are bearish.

As a dip-buy candidate, wait for the hourly chart to turn bullish again.

DAX — 25,260.29

The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are strong buys; the daily chart is neutral.

Buying signals are clear from the short-term charts through the hourly chart. The daily chart has improved from a strong sell to neutral, but it has not yet turned bullish.

This is a candidate for short-term dip-buying. Watch for the improvement to extend to the daily chart.

FTSE 100 — 10,622.13

The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are strong buys; the daily chart is neutral.

The hourly chart has improved from neutral to a strong buy. The daily chart has also improved from a strong sell to neutral, as the short-term rebound extends to the higher timeframes.

This is a candidate for short-term dip-buying. On the daily chart, however, moving averages are bullish while indicators are bearish.

CAC 40 — 7,821.67

The 5-minute chart is a strong buy, the 15-minute chart is a buy, the hourly chart is a strong buy, and the daily chart is a strong sell.

The hourly strong sell from the previous report has improved to a strong buy. The daily chart, however, remains clearly bearish.

Treat the short-term buy and daily sell signals separately. If considering a daily-trend sell, wait for the hourly buy signal to weaken.

Nikkei 225 — 69,030.92

The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are neutral; the daily chart is a strong buy.

The previous strong buy across all timeframes has given way to weaker short-term direction. On the hourly chart, moving averages are bullish while indicators are bearish.

This is a candidate for buying dips in line with the daily chart, but wait for the 15-minute and hourly charts to improve before acting.

Strength Ranking

Strong buys across all timeframes

• USD/JPY
• Copper

Strong buys from the 15-minute chart through the daily chart

• USD/CHF
• USD/CAD
• WTI crude
• S&P 500

Strong buys on the hourly and daily charts

• AUD/NZD

Clear buying from the short-term charts through the hourly chart

• GBP/JPY
• DAX
• FTSE 100
• CAC 40

GBP/JPY is also a buy on the daily chart. The daily charts for DAX and the FTSE 100 are neutral, while the CAC 40 daily chart is a strong sell. Their higher-timeframe setups therefore differ.

Weakness Ranking

Strong sells across all timeframes

• EUR/USD
• NZD/USD
• EUR/GBP

Clear weakness on the higher timeframes

• AUD/USD
• GBP/USD
• Silver and silver futures

Daily sells remain in place

• EUR/JPY
• NZD/JPY
• CAD/JPY
• EUR/CHF
• CAC 40
• Gold

Some of these instruments have buy signals on shorter timeframes. Avoid rushing into trades based on the daily sell alone; look for alignment on the timeframe being traded.

Trading Strategy

Prioritize these dip-buy candidates

USD/JPY and copper are strong buys across all timeframes.

USD/CHF, USD/CAD, WTI, and the S&P 500 are strong buys from the 15-minute chart and above. For these candidates, wait for the short-term correction to end and for the 5-minute chart to resume the higher-timeframe direction.

AUD/NZD has clear hourly and daily buy signals. GBP/JPY is aligned to the upside from the short-term charts through the daily chart.

Short-term buy candidates

DAX and the FTSE 100 are strong buys from the short-term charts through the hourly chart. Their daily charts are neutral, so treat them differently from instruments with buy signals aligned through the daily timeframe.

CAC 40, NZD/JPY, and CAD/JPY also have strong hourly buy signals, but their daily charts are strong sells. Treat these as countertrend rebounds.

Sell-the-rally candidates

EUR/USD, NZD/USD, and EUR/GBP are strong sells across all timeframes.

AUD/USD and GBP/USD are also bearish on the higher timeframes. Silver is weak on both the hourly and daily charts; watch for its short-term signals to realign to the downside after a rebound.

Wait for conditions to improve

The buy-side alignment in BTC and gold has weakened.

Natural gas has a strong daily buy but a strong hourly sell. The Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei retain daily strength, but their hourly charts are neutral.

If considering a trade in line with the daily buy, wait for the hourly chart to improve.

Key Points

USD/JPY is particularly strong, while EUR/USD, NZD/USD, and EUR/GBP are particularly weak. In this market, prioritize instruments with aligned signals across the timeframes being traded rather than anticipating a rebound.

Among equity indices, the S&P 500 has strong higher-timeframe signals, while the hourly charts for the Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei are neutral. European equities have improved in the short term, but their daily setups differ by index.

Shorting EUR/USD or NZD/USD while buying USD/JPY or USD/CHF creates overlapping exposure to dollar strength. Assess concentration by shared currency exposure, not just by the number of instruments.