FX Option Expiry Analysis – July 2, 2026
Current Spot Prices
- EUR/USD: 1.1384
- USD/JPY: 162.36
- GBP/USD: 1.3288
- USD/CHF: 0.8085
- USD/CAD: 1.4214
- AUD/USD: 0.6892
- NZD/USD: 0.5676
- EUR/GBP: 0.8565
Thursday (July 2)
EUR/USD
Option expiries:
- 1.1300 (€2.2B)
- 1.1350 (€1.8B)
- 1.1380 (€1.0B)
- 1.1400 (€3.7B)
- 1.1425 (€920M)
- 1.1435 (€530M)
- 1.1450 (€4.0B)
- 1.1475 (€960M)
- 1.1480 (€990M)
- 1.1500 (€1.3B)
Spot: 1.1384
Today’s dominant expiry is:
1.1450 (€4.0B)
Additional major expiries include:
- 1.1400 (€3.7B)
- 1.1300 (€2.2B)
- 1.1350 (€1.8B)
- 1.1500 (€1.3B)
With spot trading just below 1.1400, the strongest option-related magnetic zone lies between 1.1400 and 1.1450.
USD/JPY
Option expiries:
- 160.00 ($1.4B)
- 161.00 ($1.6B)
- 161.65 ($760M)
- 162.80 ($530M)
- 163.00 ($740M)
Spot: 162.36
The largest expiry is:
161.00 ($1.6B)
However, the closest strike is:
162.80 ($530M)
In the short term, 162.80 may attract price action, while any correction is likely to find support toward the 161.00–161.50 area.
GBP/USD
Option expiry:
- 1.3245 (£560M)
Spot: 1.3288
The option size is relatively small, so market impact is expected to be limited.
USD/CAD
Option expiries:
- 1.4200 ($520M)
- 1.4210 ($810M)
Spot: 1.4214
With spot trading almost exactly at the major strike, 1.4210 is likely to act as today’s price magnet.
AUD/USD
Option expiry:
- 0.6900 (AUD 580M)
Spot: 0.6892
Spot is very close to the strike, making 0.6900 the key reference level into the New York cut.
Friday (July 3)
EUR/USD
Option expiries:
- 1.1300 (€990M)
- 1.1325 (€700M)
- 1.1350 (€750M)
- 1.1370 (€1.5B)
- 1.1375 (€1.1B)
- 1.1400 (€890M)
- 1.1430 (€700M)
- 1.1450 (€700M)
- 1.1500 (€1.9B)
Spot: 1.1384
The largest expiry is:
1.1500 (€1.9B)
Other notable strikes include:
- 1.1370 (€1.5B)
- 1.1375 (€1.1B)
Spot currently sits inside the major option cluster around 1.1370–1.1400, suggesting price may remain anchored within this range before any larger move develops.
USD/JPY
Option expiries:
- 160.00 ($1.2B)
- 160.50 ($890M)
- 161.50 ($1.3B)
Spot: 162.36
The largest expiry is:
161.50 ($1.3B)
Although positioned below the current market, it could become an important downside magnet if USD/JPY begins to retrace.
GBP/USD
Option expiries:
- 1.3200 (£630M)
- 1.3300 (£530M)
Spot: 1.3288
The closest strike is 1.3300, making the 1.33 area the primary magnet into Friday’s New York cut.
AUD/USD
Option expiries:
- 0.6700 (AUD 590M)
- 0.6900 (AUD 510M)
- 0.6925 (AUD 960M)
- 0.7100 (AUD 1.3B)
Spot: 0.6892
The largest expiry is:
0.7100 (AUD 1.3B)
Meanwhile,
0.6925 (AUD 960M)
is much closer to current price and therefore represents the more immediate upside magnet.
Overall Market Structure
EUR/USD
- 1.1450 (€4.0B) – Thursday
- 1.1400 (€3.7B) – Thursday
USD/JPY
- 161.00 ($1.6B) – Thursday
- 161.50 ($1.3B) – Friday
AUD/USD
- 0.7100 (AUD 1.3B) – Friday
- 0.6925 (AUD 960M) – Friday
USD/CAD
- 1.4210 ($810M) – Thursday
Trading Outlook
EUR/USD
- Thursday: Expect a pull toward 1.1400–1.1450.
- Friday: Price is likely to remain centered around 1.1370–1.1400.
- Mean-reversion strategies appear more attractive than breakout trades.
USD/JPY
- Near-term resistance is around 162.80.
- If a correction develops, 161.50–161.00 becomes the primary support zone.
USD/CAD
- Expect price to remain anchored around 1.4210.
AUD/USD
- Watch the 0.6900–0.6925 range.
- A sustained rebound could eventually target 0.7100.
Summary
The dominant option theme remains EUR/USD, where exceptionally large expiries at 1.1450 (€4.0B) and 1.1400 (€3.7B) are likely to exert the strongest influence. With spot trading just below this cluster, price action into the New York cut is expected to gravitate toward the 1.1400–1.1450 zone.
For USD/JPY, the nearest option interest sits around 162.80, while larger expiries between 161.00 and 161.50 should provide support if the pair enters a corrective phase. Meanwhile, AUD/USD is focused on 0.6925 and 0.7100, while USD/CAD is likely to remain anchored around 1.4210 through today’s option expiry.
