【Technical Analysis】12 August 2026
■ Summary
The main themes in the current market are sterling strength, Australian dollar strength, precious-metals strength, and gains in the Nikkei Average.
In the FX market, GBP/USD and AUD/USD show strong buying across all timeframes, creating very strong bullish setups. EUR/USD is also strongly bullish in the short term and bullish on the daily chart, although the hourly chart is neutral, making it less one-directional than sterling or the Australian dollar.
USD/JPY has risen to 159.27, but the 5-minute, 15-minute, and daily charts remain strongly bearish. The hourly chart is neutral, while the daily chart still points to caution over selling into rebounds.
Among yen crosses, GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY are strong. GBP/JPY shows strong buying on the hourly and daily charts, while AUD/JPY is also strongly bullish on the daily chart. In contrast, CHF/JPY, NZD/JPY, and CAD/JPY are weak in the short term, showing a divided trend across yen crosses.
In commodities, gold and silver are strongly bullish across all timeframes. Gold has risen into the $4,400 range and silver into the $66 range, making the precious-metals rally particularly clear. WTI crude oil is strongly bullish on the daily chart, but strongly bearish in the short term, so caution is needed regarding a correction at elevated levels.
In equity markets, the DAX and Nikkei Average are strongly bullish across all timeframes. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ 100 remain strong on the daily chart, but the Dow and S&P 500 are seeing short-term selling pressure, suggesting that U.S. equities are entering a modest corrective phase.
■ Currency Markets
USD/JPY
USD/JPY is trading at 159.27.
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strongly bearish, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is strongly bearish.
Although the pair has risen into the 159 range, selling pressure remains on both the short-term and daily charts.
The pair is continuing its rebound following the sharp decline from the 163 range, but the daily downtrend has not yet been fully broken.
The 159 range is also a level where intervention concerns are likely to increase.
Even if short-covering emerges, it is preferable to watch for upside resistance rather than chase the rally.
At present, caution toward selling rebounds remains appropriate from a daily-chart perspective.
USD/CHF
USD/CHF is trading at 0.8125.
The 5-minute chart is bearish, while the 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are strongly bullish.
Unlike USD/JPY, USD/CHF is showing dollar buying on the medium-term and daily charts.
Although some short-term selling is emerging, the overall trend remains biased toward buying.
It remains a potential buy-on-dips candidate, but it is preferable to confirm that the 5-minute selling pressure has eased.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD is trading at 1.1540.
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strongly bullish, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is bullish.
The euro-buying and dollar-selling trend remains in place, although momentum has weakened somewhat on the hourly chart.
With both the short-term and daily charts still bullish, the basic approach remains to consider buying on dips.
However, as the hourly chart is neutral, confirmation of renewed upside following a short-term correction is more important than chasing higher prices.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD is trading at 1.3518.
The 5-minute, 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are all strongly bullish.
This is one of the strongest currency pairs in the current FX market.
Sterling buying and dollar selling are very clear, with direction fully aligned from the short term through the daily chart.
Buying on dips remains favored.
However, with the pair already above 1.3500, waiting for a pullback is preferable to entering at elevated levels.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD
AUD/USD is trading at 0.7062.
The 5-minute, 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are all strongly bullish.
The Australian dollar is very strong and, alongside GBP/USD, is one of the main market leaders.
NZD/USD is trading at 0.5864.
The 5-minute chart is bullish, while the 15-minute and hourly charts are strongly bearish. The daily chart remains strongly bullish.
Although the daily chart is strong, selling is notable from the short-term through the hourly chart.
AUD/NZD is strongly bullish across all timeframes.
The Australian dollar is clearly outperforming the New Zealand dollar, making AUD the stronger of the two Oceania currencies.
Yen Crosses
Yen crosses are showing substantial divergence depending on the currency pair.
The strongest pairs are:
● GBP/JPY
● AUD/JPY
● CAD/JPY on the daily chart
GBP/JPY is trading at 215.30.
The 5-minute chart is strongly bullish, while the hourly and daily charts are also strongly bullish.
With sterling itself strong, GBP/JPY is one of the strongest yen crosses.
AUD/JPY is trading at 112.49.
The 5-minute and hourly charts are bullish, while the daily chart is strongly bullish.
As with AUD/USD, Australian dollar buying is prominent.
CAD/JPY is trading at 114.33.
The short-term charts are strongly bearish, while the daily chart is bullish.
The pair is correcting in the short term, but underlying support remains on the broader trend.
In contrast, CHF/JPY is trading at 196.03 and is strongly bearish across all timeframes.
NZD/JPY is also strongly bearish from the short term through the hourly chart.
EUR/JPY is weak from the short term through the hourly chart, leaving the pair with heavy upside resistance.
Overall, GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY are strong, while CHF/JPY, NZD/JPY, and EUR/JPY are weak. Currency selection remains important.
EUR/GBP
EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8537.
The 5-minute, 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are all strongly bearish.
Euro selling and sterling buying are very clear.
While GBP/USD is strongly bullish across all timeframes, EUR/USD is neutral on the hourly chart. Sterling is therefore clearly outperforming the euro.
At present, EUR/GBP remains a sell-on-rebounds candidate.
■ Commodity Markets
Gold
XAU/USD is trading at 4,411.60.
The 5-minute, 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are all strongly bullish.
Gold futures are also trading at 4,470.62 and are strongly bullish across all timeframes.
Gold is one of the strongest instruments in the current commodity market.
The precious-metals rally is very clear, and buying on dips remains favored.
However, as prices have already risen into the $4,400 range, attention is needed for profit-taking at elevated levels.
For long positions, it is more natural to wait for a short-term correction and confirmation of renewed upside.
Silver
XAG/USD is trading at 66.3990.
The 5-minute, 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are all strongly bullish.
Silver futures are also trading at 66.597 and are strongly bullish across all timeframes.
Silver is showing even stronger momentum than gold and is supporting the broader precious-metals market.
Buying is fully aligned from the short term through the daily chart, favoring a buy-on-dips approach.
However, with prices having surged into the $66 range, confirmation of a pullback is preferable to chasing the rally.
WTI Crude Oil
WTI crude oil is trading at 83.49.
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strongly bearish, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is strongly bullish.
Prices have remained above $80 since the previous analysis, and the daily uptrend in oil remains intact.
However, strong short-term selling has emerged, indicating a correction at elevated levels.
The daily trend remains bullish, but chasing higher prices should be approached cautiously until short-term selling pressure subsides.
It is preferable to wait for a pullback to form and for the hourly chart to improve back toward a bullish signal.
Natural Gas
Natural gas is trading at 2.789.
The 15-minute and hourly charts are strongly bullish, while the daily chart is neutral.
The market has improved on the short-term and hourly charts after previous weakness.
However, with the daily chart still neutral, it is too early to conclude that a full uptrend has resumed.
Long positions should be focused on the short to medium term, while confirmation of daily-chart improvement is needed.
BTC
BTC/USD is trading at $63,880.
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strongly bullish, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is strongly bearish.
Bitcoin is rebounding in the short term, but weakness remains on the daily chart.
Momentum has slowed compared with the previous Bitcoin rally, creating a conflict between a short-term rebound and a daily downtrend.
Confirmation of daily-chart improvement is needed before considering longer-term buying.
Short-term buying may be possible, but caution toward selling rebounds remains appropriate from a daily-chart perspective.
■ Equity Markets
U.S. Equities
The Dow Jones is trading at 53,791.85.
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts are strongly bearish, while the daily chart is strongly bullish.
The daily uptrend remains intact, but profit-taking is strong from the short term through the hourly chart.
For long positions, it is preferable to wait for short-term selling pressure to ease.
The S&P 500 is trading at 7,728.20.
The 15-minute and hourly charts are bearish, while the daily chart is strongly bullish.
The broader trend remains bullish, but a correction is underway from the short term through the hourly chart.
The NASDAQ 100 is trading at 29,525.48.
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are bullish, while the daily chart is strongly bullish.
The hourly chart is neutral, but its short-term structure is somewhat more resilient than that of the Dow Jones and S&P 500.
However, technology stocks are also at elevated levels, making pullback confirmation important for new buying.
European Equities
The DAX is trading at 26,468.73.
The 5-minute, 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are all strongly bullish.
It is the most consistently strong European equity index.
Buying on dips remains favored.
The UK 100 is trading at 10,837.35.
The hourly chart is strongly bearish, while the daily chart is bullish.
Although the daily chart remains supported, weakness is emerging from the short term through the hourly chart.
It is comparatively weaker among European indices.
The CAC 40 is trading at 8,696.93.
The 15-minute and hourly charts are strongly bearish, while the daily chart is strongly bullish.
A short-term correction is conflicting with the daily uptrend.
Japanese Equities
The Nikkei Average is trading at 67,630.00.
The 5-minute, 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts are all strongly bullish.
It is one of the strongest indices in the current market.
The index is continuing to make new highs, with the bullish trend remaining very clear.
However, following a sharp advance, buying after a short-term correction is preferable to chasing at current levels.
■ Strength Ranking
S Rank
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
XAU/USD
XAG/USD
Gold futures
Silver futures
DAX
Nikkei Average
A Rank
GBP/JPY
AUD/JPY
AUD/NZD
EUR/CHF
USD/CHF
WTI crude oil on the daily chart
NASDAQ 100 on the daily chart
B Rank
EUR/USD in the short term
Natural gas in the short term
Dow Jones on the daily chart
S&P 500 on the daily chart
CAD/JPY on the daily chart
NZD/USD on the daily chart
■ Weakness Ranking
S Rank
CHF/JPY
EUR/GBP
NZD/JPY in the short term
CAD/JPY in the short term
Dow Jones in the short term
BTC on the daily chart
A Rank
USD/JPY
EUR/JPY in the short term
GBP/JPY in the short term
WTI crude oil in the short term
UK 100 on the hourly chart
CAC 40 in the short term
B Rank
NZD/USD on the hourly chart
EUR/USD on the hourly chart
S&P 500 in the short term
BTC with a neutral hourly chart
Natural gas with a neutral daily chart
■ Market Theme
The main themes are precious-metals strength, sterling strength, Australian dollar strength, and Nikkei Average strength.
GBP/USD and AUD/USD are strongly bullish across all timeframes, clearly demonstrating the strength of sterling and the Australian dollar.
EUR/USD and NZD/USD remain bullish on the daily chart, but their hourly charts are neutral or bearish. This shows clear divergence even among dollar pairs.
USD/JPY remains in the 159 range, but the daily chart is strongly bearish. Short-term selling is also emerging, leaving caution toward selling rebounds.
Among yen crosses, GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY are strong, while CHF/JPY and NZD/JPY are weak. Currency selection is important.
Gold and silver are strongly bullish across all timeframes, making the precious-metals rally the dominant market theme. Crude oil is strongly bullish on the daily chart, but selling is appearing in the short term.
The DAX and Nikkei Average are strongly bullish across all timeframes. In contrast, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 remain strong on the daily chart but are experiencing stronger short-term corrections.
■ Trading Strategy
Bullish Bias
GBP/USD
AUD/USD
XAU/USD
XAG/USD
Gold futures
Silver futures
DAX
Nikkei Average
Potential Buy-on-Dips Candidates
GBP/JPY
AUD/JPY
AUD/NZD
EUR/CHF
USD/CHF
WTI crude oil on the daily chart
NASDAQ 100 on the daily chart
EUR/USD in the short term
Potential Sell-on-Rebounds Candidates
CHF/JPY
EUR/GBP
NZD/JPY in the short term
CAD/JPY in the short term
Dow Jones in the short term
BTC on the daily chart
USD/JPY
Instruments Requiring Caution
USD/JPY remains in the 159 range, but the daily chart is strongly bearish. With intervention concerns also likely at these levels, caution toward selling rebounds is more natural than chasing the upside.
GBP/USD and AUD/USD are strongly bullish across all timeframes. The buying trend remains dominant, but confirmation of a pullback is preferable after the recent gains.
Gold and silver are strongly bullish across all timeframes. Precious-metals strength is very clear, but attention is needed for short-term profit-taking after the sharp rise.
WTI crude oil is strongly bullish on the daily chart but strongly bearish in the short term. It may be forming a pullback within the uptrend, but confirmation of a short-term reversal is needed.
BTC is strongly bullish in the short term but strongly bearish on the daily chart. Long positions should be limited to short-term trading, while the daily chart continues to support caution toward selling rebounds.
The DAX and Nikkei Average are very strong, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 are seeing short-term corrections. Even where equity indices retain an overall bullish bias, careful index selection remains important.
■ Summary
The current market is centered on precious-metals strength, sterling strength, Australian dollar strength, and Nikkei Average strength.
The strongest instruments are GBP/USD, AUD/USD, XAU/USD, XAG/USD, gold futures, silver futures, the DAX, and the Nikkei Average.
In contrast, CHF/JPY, EUR/GBP, short-term NZD/JPY, short-term CAD/JPY, short-term Dow Jones, and BTC on the daily chart are weak and remain vulnerable to selling on rebounds.
Overall, the market favors buying pullbacks in strong sterling, the Australian dollar, precious metals, the DAX, and the Nikkei Average, while considering selling rebounds in weak CHF/JPY, EUR/GBP, short-term NZD/JPY, BTC on the daily chart, and USD/JPY.
