Intervention Risk Persists, 157 Yen Becomes the Battleground | Oil Surge Rekindles Yen Weakness Pressure
■ Market Overview
At the start of the week, USD/JPY showed sharp volatility:
- 157.20 → 155.72 rapid drop
- Followed by a quick rebound to the high 156s
→ Similar to last week, price action strongly suggests intervention awareness
Authorities continue to state they are
“closely monitoring speculative moves”
→ The market is now fully in caution mode
■ FX Movement
- USD/JPY: fluctuating between 155–157
- Sharp intraday swings
→ A highly binary range-driven market
■ Core Market Structure
“Yen depreciation pressure vs intervention”
Yen-weakening factors:
- Rising oil prices (WTI around $106)
- Middle East tensions (Hormuz Strait risk)
- US-Japan rate differential
Yen-strengthening factors:
- Direct FX intervention
- Strong verbal warnings from authorities
→ Rallies get capped, dips get bought
■ Middle East & Oil
- Iran maintains a hardline stance
- Reports of attacks on US vessels
→ WTI surged toward $107
→ Further intensifying yen depreciation pressure
■ Key Focus (Critical)
- Authorities’ reaction around 157 level
- Oil price sustainability above $100
- Hormuz Strait developments
→ These are now the primary market drivers
■ Scenarios
① Oil continues rising
→ Strong yen weakness pressure
→ Retest and possible break above 157
② Intervention resumes
→ Sharp drop (potentially below 155)
③ Range persists (most likely)
→ 155–157 consolidation
■ Strategy Points
- Trend-following is risky
- Trade with a range assumption
- Always prepare for sudden volatility
■ Summary
The current market is:
“Real demand-driven yen selling vs policy-driven yen buying”
- Even with rising oil, upside is capped
- Even after intervention, rebounds occur
→ The most critical factors are:
the 157 level and oil price dynamics
