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-43,310 USD | Is the Yen-Sell Era Ending? A New Phase: “USD Weakness × JPY Reversal × Commodity Currency Leadership”

-43,310 USD | Is the Yen-Sell Era Ending?

A New Phase: “USD Weakness × JPY Reversal × Commodity Currency Leadership”

Trade Results (Apr 27 – May 1)

Weekly Total: -43,310 USD

■ Core Takeaway

This week was simple:

“Early entries destroyed performance.”

  • Consecutive losses on GOLD due to wrong direction
  • Initial crude oil short went against the position

However:

  • Re-entry on crude oil short recovered losses

👉 The idea wasn’t wrong.
👉 The issue was timing.

You tried to capture a risk-on shift…

Too early = Loss

■ What This Market Really Was

In one sentence:

“A market where only those who caught the turning point won.”

  • GOLD → Clear downtrend
  • Crude oil → Rally → Sharp breakdown
  • USD → Holding but failing to extend
  • Commodity currencies → Weak early → Strong later

👉 This was NOT a trend-following market

👉 It was:

A transition-capture game

Miss the shift → performance collapses

■ One Critical Fix

The solution is simple:

“Do not enter on the first move.”

  • Skip the first impulse
  • Trade the second wave
  • Wait for confirmation

👉 This alone will significantly improve results

FX Weekly Report

Review (Apr 20–24) + Outlook (Apr 28–May 10)

■ Structural Shift (Most Important)

This market clearly had two phases:

Phase 1 (Apr 20–24)

  • Middle East risk
  • Oil above $90
  • Safe-haven USD buying

👉 USD-driven market

Phase 2 (From Apr 27)

  • Sharp JPY rebound
  • USD losing momentum
  • Commodity currencies rising

👉 A completely different market

■ Final Structure (Key Insight)

**USD: Weak

JPY: Bottoming / early recovery
Commodities: Leading**

👉 Translation:

“The era of one-sided JPY selling is ending.”

■ Phase 1 Recap

Middle East dominated everything:

  • Strait of Hormuz tension
  • Oil rally
  • Uncertain ceasefire

👉 Repeated safe-haven USD buying

But here’s the anomaly:

  • Nikkei hit 60,000
  • Equities remained strong

👉 Result:

**Stocks = Risk-on

FX = Risk-off**

A completely divergent market

■ The Truth About USD/JPY

This is where many fail.

USD/JPY rising ≠ USD strength

It was:

JPY weakness

  • USD wasn’t strong
  • JPY was being aggressively sold

That’s why:

👉 Price stalled near 160

👉 This was a limit signal

■ The Turning Point (From Apr 27)

Everything changed:

  • Strong intervention warnings from Japan
  • Rising intervention risk
  • Slightly hawkish BOJ elements

👉 JPY shorts were squeezed

JPY entered a reversal phase

■ Currency Strength (Now)

Strong:

  • CAD
  • AUD
  • NZD
  • GBP

Neutral:

  • EUR
  • CHF

Weak:

  • USD
  • JPY (but early recovery phase)

■ Currency Breakdown

JPY

  • Signs of sell-off ending
  • Constant intervention risk
  • Most important currency now

USD

  • Momentum fading
  • Sell on rallies
  • Only bought during crises

CAD

  • Strongest currency
  • Oil-linked leader

AUD / NZD

  • Stable uptrend
  • Core of risk-on flows

GBP

  • Strong, but overheating

EUR

  • Slow mover
  • Weak trend clarity

■ GOLD Has Changed

It is no longer a pure safe haven.

  • Doesn’t rise only on geopolitics
  • Rises with equities
  • Rises with USD weakness

👉 It has become:

A capital inflow asset

■ Biggest Theme Ahead

Slowing employment × persistent inflation

■ US NFP (May 8)

Forecast:

  • NFP: +60K
  • Unemployment: 4.3%
  • Wages: recovering

Scenarios

  • As expected → USD weak
  • Miss → Rate cuts → USD collapse
  • Beat → Temporary USD strength (but limited follow-through)

■ Other Key Events

  • RBA (rate hike expectations)
  • NZ employment
  • Japan real wages
  • FX intervention (top risk)

■ Strategy (Focus Only Here)

**Buy AUD / NZD / CAD

Sell USD on rallies
Avoid JPY shorts (for now)**

■ Pair Focus

  • USD/JPY → Avoid (most difficult pair)
  • USD/CAD → Strong sell bias
  • AUD/JPY / NZD/JPY → Buy dips (but watch JPY)
  • EUR/USD → Clean uptrend

■ Risks

  • FX intervention
  • Middle East headlines
  • NFP surprises

■ Final Conclusion

The market has changed.

  • USD weak
  • JPY recovering
  • Commodity currencies winning

“Blind JPY selling no longer works.”

■ Final Message

This is a true turning point.

To win:

Let go of the past

  • Buy only strong currencies
  • Avoid unclear setups

Especially:

👉 Stop forcing trades in USD/JPY

The edge now is simple:

“The courage to not trade is your greatest weapon.”

 

■ Afterword: Rest Is Part of the Strategy

This week’s market made one thing very clear:

Those who kept pushing collapsed.
Those who waited survived.

And this isn’t just about trading.

We tend to believe that:

  • Constant action is right
  • Never stopping is discipline
  • Always doing something is progress

But in reality, it’s the opposite.

In elite sports, it’s well known that performance is not determined during training—but during recovery.

Muscle growth and performance gains don’t happen while you’re pushing.
They happen while you rest.

No rest = no growth.

The same applies to trading.

If you force trades continuously:

  • Your judgment deteriorates
  • Your precision drops
  • Eventually, losses compound

On the other hand:

Those who rest properly
→ regain focus
→ sharpen decision-making

That’s why it’s critical to intentionally create:

  • Days with no trades
  • Time where you do nothing

This isn’t weakness.

It’s strategy.

Olympic champion Allyson Felix once said:

“You have to fill yourself up first—everything else builds from there.”

She didn’t succeed by running at full speed all the time.

She improved by knowing when to stop.

This is the essence of trading.

Not constant action—but controlled timing.

■ Final Message for Next Week

Don’t try to force profits.

Instead, build your edge through:

  • The courage to rest
  • The patience to wait
  • The discipline to reset

Because in the end,

The traders who know when not to trade
are the ones who last—and win.

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