Middle East Caution Continues Ahead of the Weekend | USD/JPY Pauses Just Below 160
■ Market Overview
There were few major economic releases or events today,
so market attention remains firmly on the Middle East.
While there has been no clear progress in additional U.S.–Iran negotiations,
traders remain cautious about potential weekend headlines.
→ Safe-haven USD buying continues to support USD/JPY
However,
aggressive buying above 160 remains limited.
■ FX Market Dynamics
USD/JPY
- Trading mainly in the 159 area
→ Upward bias remains, but traders are cautious just below 160
EUR/USD
- Trading between 1.16 and just below 1.17
→ Stronger USD keeps upside limited
GBP/USD
- Holding firm
→ Supported by expectations of additional rate hikes from the Bank of England
EUR/JPY
- Trading in the 186 area
→ Upside capped just below 187
■ Core Market Theme
“A market where upside is hard to buy, but downside is also hard to sell.”
- Middle East risk → USD buying
- Weekend caution → profit-taking and adjustment pressure
→ Strong, but unable to fully extend
■ Key Focus (Top Priority)
- Weekend Middle East headlines
- Adjustment of existing USD long positions
- Next week’s ECB and BOE meetings
→ Right now,
position adjustment matters more than new catalysts
■ Scenario Outlook
① Weekend risk-off adjustment
→ USD long reduction
→ USD/JPY pulls back
② Renewed geopolitical tension
→ Safe-haven USD buying accelerates
→ Risk of a break above 160
③ No major developments
→ Continued range trading in the 159 zone
■ Strategy Points
- Be cautious chasing USD/JPY above 160
- Respect weekend holding risk
- Prioritize short-term tactical trades
■ Summary
The current market is:
“A strong dollar that struggles to extend higher.”
→ The key lies in weekend Middle East developments
→ Most important now:
Position management and weekend exposure decisions
