⚠️ NFP Under Holiday Conditions — Volatility Risk Amid War-Driven USD Strength
■ Daily Overview
The market has entered a dangerous combination:
👉 Ongoing war-driven USD strength
👉 Extremely low liquidity conditions
Following Trump’s speech, the following trends have re-accelerated:
- Strong USD
- Rising oil prices
- Falling equities
Meanwhile:
- Good Friday
- Easter holidays
have led to:
【Key Point】
👉 A significant drop in market participation
■ Geopolitics (Most Important)
Key points from Trump’s speech:
- Strategic objectives are close to being achieved
- Mission completion is within sight
However:
- Intensified attacks expected over the next 2–3 weeks
- Indications of large-scale infrastructure strikes
【Conclusion】
■ Signals of eventual resolution
■ But in reality, escalation continues
👉 The market has returned to war-mode conditions
■ FX Market Developments
USD/JPY
- High: 159.74
- Current: Around 159
Characteristics:
- Upward pressure remains
- However, upside is heavy
Drivers:
- Continued USD strength
- Intervention concerns
EUR/USD
- Low: 1.1509
- Rebound: Around 1.1560
【Current Status】
- USD strength persists
- But signs of near-term stabilization
GBP/USD
- Range: High 1.31s to high 1.32s
Background:
- Fading rate hike expectations
- UK market holiday
Cross Yen Pairs
- EUR/JPY: Around 183
- GBP/JPY: Around 211
【Characteristics】
- Moving in line with USD/JPY
- Weak upside momentum
■ Oil (Most Critical)
- Touched: $113.97
【Key Points】
- Rising supply risk
- Pricing in prolonged conflict
👉 Core driver behind USD strength
■ Market Environment
Current Characteristics:
■ Extremely thin liquidity
■ Headline-driven market
■ Increased algorithmic influence
【Summary】
Compared to normal conditions:
- Easier to move
- Harder to stabilize
■ Key Event
US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
【Special Conditions】
- Low participation
- Thin liquidity
👉 Even minor surprises can trigger large market moves
■ Major Risks
■ Widening spreads
■ Sudden volatility spikes
■ Unpredictable price action
Additionally:
■ Intervention Risk
- Thin market conditions
- Weak yen levels
👉 Potential for sudden sharp downside moves
■ Trading Perspective
❌ Avoid
- Leaving positions unattended
- Holding full-size positions through events
✅ Recommended
- Reduce position size
- Focus on short-term trades
- Avoid exposure around major data releases
■ Key Level
USD/JPY
- 160.00
【Significance】
- Psychological level
- Intervention warning zone
■ Summary
The current market represents:
👉 “War-driven market × Holiday-thinned market”
— one of the most dangerous combinations.
■ Final Conclusion (Core Insight)
■ USD strength continues
■ However, price action remains highly unstable
