⚠️ NFP During Holiday-Thinned Markets — Volatility Risk Elevated Despite Ongoing Safe-Haven Dollar Strength
■ Overview
The market has entered a dangerous combination of:
“Ongoing safe-haven USD strength” + “extremely low liquidity.”
Following Trump’s speech:
- USD strength has accelerated
- Oil prices have surged
- Equities have declined
Meanwhile:
- Good Friday
- Easter holidays
have resulted in:
[CRITICAL] Extremely thin market participation
■ Geopolitics (Highest Priority)
Key points from Trump’s speech:
- Strategic objectives are close to being achieved
- Mission completion is in sight
However:
- Intensified attacks expected over the next 2–3 weeks
- Signals of full-scale infrastructure strikes
Conclusion
- End-of-conflict narrative exists
- But reality points to escalating conflict
→ Markets are back in crisis mode
■ FX Market Developments
USD/JPY
- High: 159.74
- Current: Trading around 159
Characteristics:
- Upward pressure remains
- However, upside is heavy
Drivers:
- Continued USD strength
- Intervention concerns
EUR/USD
- Low: 1.1509
- Rebound: Around 1.1560
Current view:
- USD strength persists
- Signs of stabilization emerging
GBP/USD
- Range: High 1.31s – High 1.32s
Background:
- Diminishing rate hike expectations
- UK market holiday
Cross Yen Pairs
- EUR/JPY: Around 183
- GBP/JPY: Around 211
Characteristics:
- Moving in line with USD/JPY
- Weak follow-through on upside
■ Crude Oil (Critical Driver)
- Peaked at: $113.97
Key points:
- Rising supply risks
- Priced-in prolonged conflict
→ Primary driver behind USD strength
■ Market Conditions
Current characteristics:
- Extremely thin liquidity
- Headline-driven movements
- Increased algorithmic impact
Summary:
Compared to normal conditions:
- Easier to move
- Harder to stop
■ Key Event
US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
Special conditions:
- Low participation
- Lack of liquidity
→ Even minor surprises can trigger outsized moves
■ Major Risks
- Widening spreads
- Sharp volatility spikes
- Unpredictable price action
Additionally:
Intervention risk
- Thin trading conditions
- Weak yen levels
→ Possibility of sudden sharp downside moves
■ Trading Perspective
❌ Avoid:
- Leaving positions unattended
- Holding full-size positions through events
✅ Prefer:
- Reduced position sizing
- Short-term trades
- Avoid trading around key data releases
■ Key Level
USD/JPY: 160
Significance:
- Psychological level
- Intervention alert zone
■ Summary
The current market is defined by:
“Crisis-driven market × Holiday-thinned market”
— one of the most dangerous combinations.
■ Final Take (Core Insight)
- USD strength continues
- But price action remains highly unstable
