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⚠️ NFP Under Holiday Conditions — Volatility Risk Amid War-Driven USD Strength

⚠️ NFP Under Holiday Conditions — Volatility Risk Amid War-Driven USD Strength

■ Daily Overview

The market has entered a dangerous combination:

👉 Ongoing war-driven USD strength
👉 Extremely low liquidity conditions

Following Trump’s speech, the following trends have re-accelerated:

  • Strong USD
  • Rising oil prices
  • Falling equities

Meanwhile:

  • Good Friday
  • Easter holidays

have led to:

【Key Point】
👉 A significant drop in market participation

■ Geopolitics (Most Important)

Key points from Trump’s speech:

  • Strategic objectives are close to being achieved
  • Mission completion is within sight

However:

  • Intensified attacks expected over the next 2–3 weeks
  • Indications of large-scale infrastructure strikes

【Conclusion】

■ Signals of eventual resolution
■ But in reality, escalation continues

👉 The market has returned to war-mode conditions

■ FX Market Developments

USD/JPY

  • High: 159.74
  • Current: Around 159

Characteristics:

  • Upward pressure remains
  • However, upside is heavy

Drivers:

  • Continued USD strength
  • Intervention concerns

EUR/USD

  • Low: 1.1509
  • Rebound: Around 1.1560

【Current Status】

  • USD strength persists
  • But signs of near-term stabilization

GBP/USD

  • Range: High 1.31s to high 1.32s

Background:

  • Fading rate hike expectations
  • UK market holiday

Cross Yen Pairs

  • EUR/JPY: Around 183
  • GBP/JPY: Around 211

【Characteristics】

  • Moving in line with USD/JPY
  • Weak upside momentum

■ Oil (Most Critical)

  • Touched: $113.97

【Key Points】

  • Rising supply risk
  • Pricing in prolonged conflict

👉 Core driver behind USD strength

■ Market Environment

Current Characteristics:

■ Extremely thin liquidity
■ Headline-driven market
■ Increased algorithmic influence

【Summary】

Compared to normal conditions:

  • Easier to move
  • Harder to stabilize

■ Key Event

US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

【Special Conditions】

  • Low participation
  • Thin liquidity

👉 Even minor surprises can trigger large market moves

■ Major Risks

■ Widening spreads
■ Sudden volatility spikes
■ Unpredictable price action

Additionally:

■ Intervention Risk

  • Thin market conditions
  • Weak yen levels

👉 Potential for sudden sharp downside moves

■ Trading Perspective

❌ Avoid

  • Leaving positions unattended
  • Holding full-size positions through events

✅ Recommended

  • Reduce position size
  • Focus on short-term trades
  • Avoid exposure around major data releases

■ Key Level

USD/JPY

  • 160.00

【Significance】

  • Psychological level
  • Intervention warning zone

■ Summary

The current market represents:

👉 “War-driven market × Holiday-thinned market”

— one of the most dangerous combinations.

■ Final Conclusion (Core Insight)

■ USD strength continues
■ However, price action remains highly unstable

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