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πŸ“Š Technical Analysis β€” February 13, 2026

πŸ“Š Technical Analysis β€” February 13, 2026

πŸ”Ž Conclusion

β€œShort-term dollar rebound Γ— Daily timeframe dollar downtrend intact.
This is a correction phase. No clear dominant leader.”

πŸ’± Dollar Pairs

πŸ”Ή EUR/USD (1.1856)

  • Short-term: Strong Sell

  • Daily: Buy

πŸ‘‰ Higher timeframe uptrend remains intact.
However, short-term structure clearly shows a corrective pullback.

πŸ”Ή GBP/USD (1.3624)

  • Short-term: Buy bias

  • Daily: Neutralizing

πŸ‘‰ Slightly more unstable than EUR.
Momentum is softer.

πŸ”Ή AUD/USD (0.7069)

  • Short-term: Sell

  • Daily: Buy

πŸ‘‰ Still in a pullback phase within an intact daily uptrend.

πŸ”Ή NZD/USD (0.6037)

  • Daily: Strong Buy

  • Short-term: Mixed

πŸ‘‰ Commodity currencies remain structurally stronger on higher timeframes.

πŸ’΄ USD/JPY (153.50)

  • Short-term: Buy

  • Daily: Strong Sell

πŸ‘‰ Dollar rebound in progress,
but the broader structure still points downward.

πŸ”» USD/CHF

  • Daily: Strong Sell

  • Short-term: Mixed

πŸ‘‰ Structural dollar weakness remains evident.

πŸ” Cross Yen Pairs

Currently in a twisted / conflicted structure.

Pair Status
EUR/JPY Daily Sell
GBP/JPY Daily Sell
CAD/JPY Daily Sell
CHF/JPY Weak Daily
AUD/JPY Daily Buy
NZD/JPY Neutral

πŸ‘‰ Cross-yen lacks clean directional alignment.
Momentum is fragmented.

πŸ₯‡ Gold (4,976)

  • Short-term: Strong Buy

  • Daily: Buy

πŸ‘‰ Uptrend structure remains intact.
Acceleration has paused, but no structural damage.

πŸ₯ˆ Silver (78.64)

  • Short-term: Strong Buy

  • Daily: Sell

πŸ‘‰ Short-term rebound only.
Higher timeframe still weak.

🧊 BTC (66,990)

  • Short-term: Buy

  • Daily: Strong Sell

πŸ‘‰ Bounce in progress,
but macro structure remains bearish.

🌏 Relative Strength Overview

πŸ”Ί Relatively Strong

  • NZD

  • AUD

  • Gold

πŸ”» Relatively Weak

  • CHF

  • USD (higher timeframe)

  • BTC (macro structure)

🎯 Strategy Focus

🟒 Long Candidates

  • NZD/USD

  • AUD/USD (on dips)

  • XAU/USD

πŸ”΄ Sell-the-Rally Candidates

  • USD/JPY

  • EUR/JPY

  • CAD/JPY

πŸ“ In One Sentence

β€œShort-term dollar bounce, higher timeframe dollar weakness.
This is not a trend reversal β€” it’s a correction inside the broader structure.”

The larger structure remains intact.
Patience and timeframe alignment are key here.

More Insights

πŸ—žοΈ Middle East Conflict Stalemate β€” Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme β€œWar Γ— Inflation Γ— Uncertainty” Tensions in the Middle East remain high. Both sides β€” the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other β€” continue to signal their willingness to prolong the conflict, with no clear signs of resolution. The situation has effectively entered a phase of strategic stalemate, where each side is testing the other’s endurance. πŸ›’ Oil as the Key Barometer To gauge the market impact of the Middle East crisis, crude oil futures have become the most important indicator. Key concerns include: Risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz Potential disruptions to global oil supply Rising inflationary pressure However: The panic selling in equities has somewhat eased The FX market currently lacks strong directional momentum πŸ’± FX Market Basic structure Geopolitical crisis β†’ USD buying But at the moment: Position adjustments Headline-driven reactions Interest rate expectations are all interacting. As a result, the market is trading in a nervous range-bound environment, with no decisive catalyst for a sustained USD rally. πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Trump Administration Developments Policies from President Donald Trump are also attracting market attention. Higher oil prices could lead to: Stronger inflation pressure Rising political dissatisfaction ahead of midterm elections According to reports, the administration is considering measures such as: Restrictions on Russian oil exports Intervention in oil futures markets πŸ‘‰ These steps may indicate efforts to find an exit path from the conflict. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Iran may also be experiencing depletion of missiles and weapon systems. πŸ“Š Tonight’s Major Event πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ U.S. Employment Report (Nonfarm Payrolls) Market expectations: Indicator Forecast Previous Nonfarm Payrolls +55K +130K Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% Released simultaneously: U.S. Retail Sales Indicator Forecast Month-over-month -0.3% Ex-auto 0.0% πŸ‘‰ The key focus will be deviation from expectations. However: The approaching weekend Ongoing war-related headlines may limit the durability of any market reaction. πŸ“Š Other Economic Data Eurozone Final GDP U.S. Business Inventories Canada Ivey PMI Brazil Industrial Production πŸŽ™ Central Bank Events Scheduled speakers include: Mary Daly Jeffrey Schmid Susan Collins Piero Cipollone Isabel Schnabel Additionally, a global central bank conference will discuss: β€œThe U.S. dollar’s role as a safe-haven asset.” πŸ“ˆ New Market Theme: Rate Hike Expectations The chain reaction: Middle East conflict β†’ Higher oil prices β†’ Rising inflation is bringing back interest rate hike expectations. European short-term rate market ECB rate hike probabilities: Year-end: 80% July: 50% Bank of Japan April hike probability: 50% (according to former BOJ board member Maeda) However, markets may increasingly focus on recession risks rather than rate differentials. 🧭 Summary The current market is dominated by war-related headlines. Key drivers: Oil prices Geopolitical developments U.S. employment data At the same time: Panic selling in equities has eased FX markets have lost clear direction For now, the environment can be summarized as: β€œMarkets move on war headlines and adjust on economic data.” This dynamic is likely to continue in the near term.
March 6, 2026

πŸ—žοΈ Middle East Conflict Stalemate β€” Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme β€œWar Γ— Inflation Γ— Uncertainty” Tensions in the

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