🧭 Market Notes for Today:
Yen weakness continues, but caution is needed near the highs
The week begins with a mild risk-on tone across markets.
USD/JPY is gradually climbing from the high-153s toward the 154 handle, and cross-yen pairs are also trading firm.
Supportive factors for the market:
-
Progress in U.S. budget negotiations → Government shutdown concerns eased slightly
-
China temporarily suspended export restrictions on rare metals → Tensions in U.S.–China relations eased for now
However, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has delayed major economic data releases.
→ With less information available, the market becomes more headline-sensitive and prone to sudden moves.
🎯 Key Focus Tonight: News flow & Central Bank Speakers
Since there are no major economic releases today, price action will likely be driven by:
| Focus | What to Watch |
|---|---|
| U.S. Congress | Debate on the temporary budget bill begins late tonight |
| Central Bank Speeches | Any hint on rate outlook immediately impacts FX |
Speakers Scheduled:
-
BOE Deputy Governor Lombardelli
-
Fed SF President Daly
-
Fed St. Louis President Musalem
→ Depending on their tone, USD/JPY may see increased intraday volatility.
🇯🇵 Domestic Context: “Policy stance still favors a weaker yen”
Comment from Government Economic Advisor Aita:
“The BOJ should not rush. Policy normalization should be gradual.”
→ This reduces pressure for rate hikes
→ Keeps Japan–U.S. rate differentials wide
→ Reinforces a structurally yen-bearish environment
💱 Current Market Feel
| Pair | Current Tone | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | Around 154.00 | Yen-selling continues, but profit-taking emerges near highs |
| EUR/USD | Slight rebound | Moves in line with stronger European equities |
| EUR/JPY | Firm | Benefiting from the prevailing yen-weak trend |
