✅ Market Pauses After Major Events — USD/JPY Holds in the ¥154 Range Amid Month-End Adjustments
💹 USD/JPY: Taking a Breather After Heavy Event Week, Short-Term Overheating Seen
This week featured an intense lineup of major central bank meetings — the FOMC, BOJ, ECB, and Bank of Canada — all delivering results largely in line with market expectations.
With no major surprises, traders saw a sense of “event exhaustion” sweep across FX markets.
USD/JPY climbed to ¥154.45 in overseas trading yesterday, marking a fresh high as both dollar strength and yen weakness aligned.
However, as the week and month-end approach, position adjustments and rebalancing flows are surfacing.
The pair now trades around ¥154.10, consolidating near the highs but stabilizing overall.
The market is balancing between short-term cooling and profit-taking pressure, hinting at a temporary pause before potential new trends emerge.
🏦 Summary of Major Central Bank Outcomes
| Central Bank | Policy Decision | Market Reaction | Key Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 FRB | 0.25% rate cut (as expected) | Dollar bought | Powell: “December rate cut not certain” – cautious tone |
| 🇯🇵 BOJ | Hold (7–2 vote) | Yen sold | Ueda: “Likelihood rising, but need more data” |
| 🇪🇺 ECB | Hold | Limited reaction | Confirms price stability; steady stance |
| 🇨🇦 BoC | Hold | CAD sold | Dovish tone, leaves room for future cuts |
🗣️ BOJ Governor Ueda: “We Need to See More Data”
“The probability of achieving our outlook for the economy and prices has increased, but we need to see a bit more data.”
“There’s no heightened concern that we’re falling behind the curve.”
Markets interpreted this as “rate hikes still some time away”, while PM Takaichi’s pro-growth “high-pressure economy” policy continues to pressure the BOJ to maintain accommodative conditions.
Thus, while yen selling remains the dominant trend,
intervention risk and verbal warnings from officials may limit upside momentum near ¥154–155.
🌍 Politics & Geopolitics: Surface-Level Harmony
At the APEC summit, the U.S., Japan, China, and South Korea each held bilateral talks, pledging cooperation and improved trade ties — creating a facade of détente.
However, the market remains cautious, viewing structural frictions as unresolved.
China’s state media (Xinhua) reported the normalization of China–Canada relations, highlighting renewed cooperation in trade and energy,
offering a short-term boost to global sentiment.
💹 Equity Markets: Tech Earnings Support Risk Appetite
Strong quarterly results from major U.S. tech firms (Apple, Amazon, etc.) bolstered risk-on sentiment.
The S&P 500, Nikkei 225, and FTSE 100 all hover near record highs.
Still, with month-end rebalancing ahead, mild pullbacks from profit-taking are possible heading into the weekend.
📊 Key Indicators & Events Today
| Time | Event | Focus |
|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone HICP (Oct Flash) | Confirmation of disinflation trend | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| 🇨🇦 Canada Real GDP (Aug) | Growth slowdown concerns | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| 🇺🇸 Chicago PMI (Oct) | Business sentiment gauge | ⭐⭐ |
| 🌐 Central Bank Speakers (Logan, Bostic, etc.) | Tone on rate-cut debate | ⭐⭐ |
| 🇯🇵 BOJ JGB Purchase Schedule (Nov) | Yield curve reaction | ⭐⭐ |
| 🇺🇸 Corporate Earnings (Chevron, Exxon, AbbVie) | Energy & healthcare sector focus | ⭐⭐⭐ |
💱 London Session Overview
| Pair | Latest | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 154.14 | Paused near highs, pre-weekend profit-taking likely |
| EUR/USD | 1.1569 | Range-bound after event week |
| EUR/JPY | 178.70 | Holding high levels; strong cross-yen tone |
| GBP/JPY | 202.95 | Approaching ¥203; resistance seen near highs |
✅ Summary
After clearing all major events, FX markets are settling into a temporary calm.
USD/JPY remains firm around ¥154, but month-end and weekend adjustments may cap further gains.
Next week’s key focus shifts to:
-
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
-
Japan’s post-holiday trading
At present, the dominant theme remains:
“Pro-growth Takaichi government × cautious BOJ stance” —
a combination that continues to underpin yen weakness,
though short-term profit-taking and rebalancing could lead to brief pullbacks.
