Forex Top Team

Back to all insights

US Government Shutdown Clouds NFP Release

⚠️ US Government Shutdown Clouds NFP Release

🏛 Impact of US Government Shutdown

  • The US Senate failed to pass a stopgap budget → partial government shutdown.

  • This raises the risk that key data such as Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and weekly jobless claims could be delayed.

  • NFP is one of the most important indicators for global markets; a delay means “loss of guidance” for traders and investors.

💱 FX Market Reaction

  • Dollar selling / Yen buying accelerated

    • USD/JPY fell to 146.91 (lowest since Sept 18), now near 147.00.

    • EUR/USD climbed into the high 1.17s.

    • Cross-yen weakened:

      • EUR/JPY near 173.0

      • GBP/JPY near 198.0

  • Drivers of yen demand:

    • Risk-off from US economic uncertainty.

    • Market sees Japan’s BoJ in a better position to raise rates after US trade deal progress.

📑 Today’s Key Data

  • Eurozone: Flash HICP (Sept), Final PMIs.

  • US: ADP Employment (+51k exp.), ISM Manufacturing (49.0 exp.), Construction Spending (Aug), MBA Mortgage Applications.

📌 Note: Private-sector data (e.g. ADP, ISM) are not affected by the shutdown and will be released as scheduled.

🗣 Key Events & Speakers

  • Eurozone: ECB’s de Guindos, Bundesbank’s Nagel, others.

  • UK: BoE’s Mann scheduled for TV interview.

  • US: Fed’s Barkin (Richmond) to speak.

  • Others: BoC meeting minutes, US weekly oil inventories.

📉 Market Levels (European Open)

  • USD/JPY: 147.02

  • EUR/USD: 1.176x

  • GBP/USD: 1.345x

  • Eurozone final Manufacturing PMI: 49.8 (better than flash 49.5, but still <50 = contraction zone).

📊 Expected Ranges by Pair (Today)

Pair Range Notes
USD/JPY 146.50 – 147.80 Yen demand strong on shutdown risk. ADP/ISM may trigger swings.
EUR/USD 1.1720 – 1.1800 Supported by PMI. Could test 1.18 if dollar stays weak.
GBP/USD 1.3420 – 1.3520 Directionless ahead of BoE speeches. Dollar moves dominate.
EUR/JPY 172.80 – 174.20 Tracks USD/JPY but EUR relatively firm vs USD.
GBP/JPY 197.50 – 199.50 Moves around 198.0; overall yen-driven.
CAD/JPY 107.00 – 108.20 Oil steady, FX driven by USD/JPY flows.
AUD/JPY 96.80 – 97.80 Sideways ahead of CPI. Modest moves with yen flows.
NZD/JPY 85.20 – 86.20 Weak GDP outlook caps upside; yen buying offsets.

📌 Summary

  • Shutdown risk casts doubt on NFP timing → fuels risk-off and yen buying.

  • USD/JPY dipped below 147; EUR/USD firmer near 1.18.

  • Today’s focus shifts to ADP jobs & ISM manufacturing as substitutes if NFP is delayed.

👉 Markets remain highly headline-sensitive; traders should prepare for wide intraday swings tied to shutdown headlines and alternative labor data.

More Insights