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πŸ’± USD/JPY Nears the 150 Barrier β€” Market Split Between Breakout and Pullback

πŸ’± USD/JPY Nears the 150 Barrier β€” Market Split Between Breakout and Pullback

β—† Market Overview

The stronger-than-expected U.S. Q2 GDP revision boosted dollar buying, sending USD/JPY to 149.93 in New York and 149.96 in Tokyo, just shy of the psychological 150 level.
Heavy selling capped the advance, pulling the pair down to 149.62, but a rebound followed, with London trade stabilizing around the 149.80s.
Support also came from the U.S. 10-year yield, which climbed back near 4.20%.

πŸ‘‰ Market focus remains firmly on whether USD/JPY can break above 150.

β—† Other Currencies

  • EUR/USD: Heavy tone in the upper 1.16s, as dollar strength keeps pressure on the euro.

  • GBP/USD: Rose from 1.3330 to 1.3359 before slipping back into the 1.3340s, reflecting a choppy and fragile tone.

  • Cross-yen: Euro/JPY regained the 175 handle. GBP/JPY touched 200.21 before retreating to the 200 area, showing nervous price action tied to USD/JPY’s strength.

London afternoon levels:

  • USD/JPY: 149.80

  • EUR/USD: 1.1754

  • GBP/USD: 1.3350s

  • GBP/JPY: 200.00

βœ… Two Scenarios at the 150 Threshold

πŸ“ˆ Scenario 1: Breakout Above 150

Drivers:

  • Upbeat U.S. GDP revision confirms resilient growth.

  • U.S. long yields remain elevated, underpinning the dollar.

  • Market sentiment leans toward testing the psychological barrier.

Strategy:

  • Buy dips at 149.50–149.60

  • Short-term target: 150.20–150.50

  • Stop-loss: below 148.90

  • A clean break could trigger stop-buying and accelerate gains.

πŸ“‰ Scenario 2: Rejection at 150

Drivers:

  • 150 is a key psychological and intervention watch zone.

  • Ahead of the weekend, profit-taking and position adjustments are likely.

  • Key events (e.g., U.S. jobs report) may keep traders cautious on fresh dollar longs.

Strategy:

  • Sell rallies at 149.80–149.90

  • Short-term target: 149.20–149.40

  • Stop-loss: above 150.10

  • A β€œbuy the rumor, sell the fact” dynamic could drive a pullback toward the low 149s.

πŸ”‘ Takeaway

The broader bias remains dollar-bullish / yen-bearish, but 150 is a decisive inflection point.

  • A breakout could unleash momentum buying.

  • A rejection may spark a sharp reversal.

πŸ‘‰ Traders should stay nimble and prepare for both outcomes as the market tests this critical level.

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