Forex Top Team

Back to all insights

💱 Market Outlook: Sideways Trading Ahead of Powell’s Speech & FOMC Minutes

💱 Market Outlook: Sideways Trading Ahead of Powell’s Speech & FOMC Minutes

🔎 Today’s Key Event — FOMC Minutes

  • This week’s main event: Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole (Friday).

  • Until then, traders likely to remain sidelined → range-bound / directionless conditions.

  • Tonight: FOMC minutes (July 29–30 meeting).

    • Decision: rate hold.

    • Notably: Vice Chair Bowman & Governor Waller argued for a 25bp rate cut.

    • Both seen as Trump-aligned → raised concerns over central bank independence.

📉 Post–Payrolls Market Context

  • Latest U.S. payrolls: weaker than expected, with sharp downward revisions to prior months.

  • Market now fully pricing a 25bp cut in September.

  • Tonight’s minutes = pre-payroll discussions, limiting relevance.

  • However, if dovish bias is clear, could still trigger USD selling.

📊 Today’s Data Calendar

  • South Africa CPI (July)

  • Eurozone HICP Final (July)

  • U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications (Aug 9–15)
    👉 None expected to be major market movers.

🗣 Speeches & Events

  • ECB President Lagarde at World Economic Forum IBCC

  • Fed Governor Waller at Blockchain Symposium 2025

  • Atlanta Fed President Bostic at Economic Outlook Forum

  • U.S. weekly oil inventory data

  • U.S. 20-year Treasury auction ($16B)

🌍 FX Market Moves (London AM)

  • NZD/USD: 0.5890 → 0.5815 sharp drop after RBNZ cut rates 25bp, with disclosure that some members favored a 50bp cut → selling accelerated. Now stabilizing near 0.5830.

  • EUR/USD: edged up to 1.1655

  • EUR/GBP: reversed earlier GBP strength from UK CPI

  • EUR/JPY: trading around 171.80, rebounding from earlier lows

✅ Summary

  • Tonight’s FOMC minutes will likely see limited impact (pre-payroll discussion).

  • The real directional driver: Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, Aug 22.

  • Until then, FX is expected to stay in range trading mode with short-lived reactions.

💱 Market Outlook: Range-Bound with Short-Term Levels in Focus

📊 Key Currency Pair Ranges (Guide Levels)

Pair Range Key Point
USD/JPY 146.80 – 148.50 Post-FOMC minutes, still range-bound; 148.50 topside is key until Powell
EUR/USD 1.1600 – 1.1700 Moves tied to U.S. yields; 1.1650 pivot level
GBP/JPY 197.50 – 199.80 UK CPI-driven volatility; 200.00 psychological ceiling
NZD/USD 0.5800 – 0.5900 RBNZ cut-driven drop; lower bound support near 0.5800

📊 Strategic Ranges with Short-Term Scenarios

Pair Range Strategy Scenario
USD/JPY 146.80 – 148.50 Play the range (buy dips / sell rallies). Above 148.50 → 149.00 test. Below 146.80 → risk to 146.20.
EUR/USD 1.1600 – 1.1700 Range trading base case. Above 1.1700 → opens 1.1750. Below 1.1600 → tests 1.1550.
GBP/JPY 197.50 – 199.80 200.00 = strong cap. Break of 199.80 → 200+ attempt. Below 197.50 → risk of break under 197.00.
NZD/USD 0.5800 – 0.5900 Volatile post-RBNZ. Above 0.5900 → rebound to 0.5950. Below 0.5800 → extension to 0.5750.

✅ Strategy Points

  • Major direction likely on hold until Powell’s speech Friday.

  • Range trading strategies favored.

  • Breakouts beyond stated ranges could trigger short-term trend reversals.

  • Watch political risks (U.S.–Ukraine talks) and data surprises for temporary volatility spikes.

More Insights