US–Ukraine Summit (President Trump × President Zelenskyy) | Market Outlook (Aug 18, 2025)
🔹 Market Environment
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The dollar downtrend remains intact, but ahead of Jackson Hole (Aug 22), markets are likely to shift into a consolidation/adjustment phase.
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A 25bp Fed rate cut in September is already priced in.
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Early in the week, directional momentum should be limited, with range-bound fluctuations dominating.
📊 Key Economic Data & Events (Front Half of Week)
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Aug 19: Eurozone Trade Balance
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Aug 19: Canada Housing Starts, International Securities Transactions
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Aug 19: US NAHB Housing Market Index
➡ Market impact expected to be limited. -
Fed Vice Chair Bowman (Bloomberg TV appearance):
→ If dovish, could trigger additional dollar weakness.
🌍 Politics & Geopolitics
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US–Ukraine Summit (Trump × Zelenskyy):
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Risk factor: potential deal leaning toward Russia.
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EU/NATO maintain a hard stance: “No peace deal without Ukraine’s participation.”
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Outcome could spark geopolitical risk spillover into markets.
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💹 Expected Ranges by Currency Pair (Aug 18–21)
| Pair | Expected Range | Key Levels | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | 146.50 – 149.50 | Support 147.50 / Resistance 149.00 | Focus on dip-buying; reduce size before Powell’s speech |
| EUR/USD | 1.1580 – 1.1700 | Support 1.1600 / Resistance 1.1670 | Bearish bias; PMI weakness could trigger break below 1.16 |
| GBP/JPY | 197.00 – 200.50 | Support 197.20 / Resistance 200.00 (psychological) | CPI could drive breakout above 200 |
| CAD/JPY | 106.50 – 108.50 | Support 107.00 / Resistance 108.00 | CPI miss = downside risk; oil also key driver |
| AUD/JPY | 95.00 – 97.00 | Support 95.50 / Resistance 96.80 | Bearish bias; RBA minutes & China data will guide |
📌 Summary
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USD/JPY: Dip-buying bias, but keep position light ahead of Powell’s speech.
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EUR/USD: Sell on rallies; short-term rebounds possible depending on PMI.
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GBP/JPY: UK CPI will be the pivot; potential breakout above 200 if strong.
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CAD/JPY: Sensitive to both CPI and oil prices; watch downside risks.
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AUD/JPY: China’s economic concerns weigh; base case remains selling rallies.
