📉 Yen Weakens Slightly as September Rate Cut Bets Grow
Equities Stay Firm, but FX Gains Stall
📰 Overall Market Flow
After the U.S. CPI release, markets have nearly priced in a 25bp rate cut at the September FOMC.
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Equities: U.S. stocks remain firm, with Japan’s Nikkei hitting fresh record highs for consecutive days.
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Trade Relations: Japan secured U.S. agreement to modify the trade deal, adding to market confidence.
💱 FX Market Developments
Risk sentiment supported mild yen weakness, but the pace lagged behind equities.
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USD/JPY: Momentum above ¥150 has stalled.
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GBP/JPY: Briefly tested ¥200 on jobs optimism, but gains capped.
📊 Key Points for Overseas Markets
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Whether the equity- and yen-weakness trend continues will hinge on U.S. stock performance.
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U.S. equity futures are slightly lower, hinting at possible short-term correction.
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No major data releases today — a “data vacuum” ahead of Thursday’s U.S. PPI and Friday’s retail sales.
🗣 Fed & Treasury Comments
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Fed Speakers: Barkin (Richmond), Goolsbee (Chicago), Bostic (Atlanta)
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U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent: Advocated a 50bp cut in September — could further strengthen dovish sentiment.
💵 U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
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Hit 98.130 late Tokyo morning, then weakened as U.S. yields fell.
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London morning low at 97.662 — lowest since July 28.
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Both the 10-day (98.577) and 21-day (98.390) moving averages remain above current levels.
📌 Currency Outlook (Short- to Medium-Term)
| Pair | Short-Term View | Medium-Term View | Key Levels |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | Resistance heavy at 149.80–150.20 | Above 150.50 possible on CPI/PPI strength | Support: 148.80 / Resistance: 150.20 |
| EUR/USD | Holding near 1.1650 support | Above 1.1700 may accelerate rebound | Support: 1.1620 / Resistance: 1.1705 |
| GBP/JPY | Stalling near 199.50–200.00 | Further upside possible on jobs & CPI | Support: 198.60 / Resistance: 200.50 |
