📉 Cautious Mood Ahead of U.S. CPI
Lack of fresh catalysts expected to keep movements limited; Dollar weakness trend continues.
💱 FX Market Overview
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USD/JPY: Trading in the low 147 range, continuing last week’s dollar-weakness trend with limited direction.
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EUR/USD: Upper 1.16 range.
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GBP/USD: Upper 1.34 range.
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U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Remaining below both the 10-day and 21-day moving averages.
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Cross/JPY: Showing firmness, with EUR/JPY in the 172 range and GBP/JPY in the upper 198 range.
📰 Political & International Developments
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U.S.-China Relations: President Trump noted China’s soybean shortage, expressing hopes to quadruple U.S. soybean exports. Regarding the temporary suspension of high tariffs (set to expire on the 12th), he suggested both the possibility of extension and increased pressure on China.
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Semiconductor Regulations: According to the Financial Times, NVIDIA and AMD are moving toward paying the U.S. 15% of revenue from chip sales to China.
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Chinese Economy: July CPI was flat year-on-year (0.0%), PPI fell 3.6%, signaling economic stagnation. However, Chinese equities remain firm.
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Ukraine Situation: U.S. and Russian leaders are set to meet on the 15th in Alaska. A “territorial exchange” plan has surfaced, but President Zelensky reiterated that “peace without Ukraine’s participation is unacceptable.” European leaders echoed this sentiment.
📊 Key Economic Indicators Today
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🇹🇷 Turkey: Industrial Production (June)
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🇿🇦 South Africa: Manufacturing Production (June)
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🇲🇽 Mexico: Industrial Production (June)
※ No major indicators from Western economies
🏦 Central Bank Developments
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ECB Outlook (Bloomberg Survey): Market consensus sees the next rate cut delayed to December, likely the final cut of the current cycle. December will also mark the release of new growth and inflation forecasts (through 2028) after the anticipated “rush demand” ahead of U.S. tariffs subsides.
📌 Market Mood
U.S. and European equity futures are trading in positive territory.
Neither risk-on nor risk-off sentiment is dominant, and the lack of catalysts is likely to keep markets directionless.
