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Dollar Strength Persists Amid Market Turbulence Triggered by Trump’s Comments – All Eyes on U.S. Retail Sales Today

Dollar Strength Persists Amid Market Turbulence Triggered by Trump’s Comments – All Eyes on U.S. Retail Sales Today

✅ Market Summary

Yesterday’s New York session saw significant volatility following a shocking headline suggesting Fed Chair Powell might be dismissed.
USD/JPY plunged from the 149 level to as low as 146.90 before rebounding sharply after former President Trump denied the report.
During Asian and European trading, the pair held firm in the 148.60–148.80 range, signaling persistent dollar-buying momentum.
The Dollar Index (DXY) remains supported by its 10- and 21-day moving averages, sustaining its bullish trend since early July.

✅ Key Event Today

U.S. Retail Sales (June)

  • Consensus:

    • Headline: +0.1% MoM

    • Ex-Autos: +0.3% MoM

Market Scenarios:

  • Above Expectations: Fed rate-cut bets decline further → stronger dollar buying

  • Below Expectations: Temporary dollar selling → potential for short-term correction

Other U.S. Data:

  • Import/Export Price Index

  • Weekly Jobless Claims

  • Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Speeches:

  • Fed Governors Kugler, Cook, Waller

  • San Francisco Fed President Daly

Corporate Earnings:

  • Key releases: Netflix, PepsiCo, U.S. Bancorp

✅ Trading Strategies (Major Pairs)

💴 USD/JPY

  • Current: Around 148.70, bullish dollar bias remains intact

  • Technical Levels:

    • Support: 148.50 / 147.90

    • Resistance: 149.20 / 150.00

  • Strategy:

    • Buy on dips

    • If retail sales beat estimates → aim for break above 149.20, add longs on confirmation

    • If retail sales miss → take quick profits below 148.20, re-enter near 147.80

💶 EUR/USD

  • Current: Around 1.1690, bearish trend persists

  • Technical Levels:

    • Support: 1.1650 / 1.1620

    • Resistance: 1.1720 / 1.1750

  • Strategy:

    • Sell on rallies

    • Short near 1.1715–1.1720, target 1.1650

    • If retail sales disappoint → temporary spike toward 1.1750, but broader outlook favors dollar strength

💷 GBP/USD

  • Current: Trading in the 1.3380s; weak rebound after soft UK labor data

  • Technical Levels:

    • Support: 1.3350 / 1.3300

    • Resistance: 1.3430 / 1.3460

  • Strategy:

    • Maintain sell-on-rally stance

    • Short near 1.3430, target 1.3350

    • Retail surprise could cause brief upside, but UK economic concerns cap gains

🇨🇦 USD/CAD

  • Current: Sideways; limited impact from Canada CPI

  • Strategy:

    • Favor buying dips

    • Buy near 1.3620–1.3630, target 1.3700

🇦🇺 AUD/USD

  • Current: Around 0.6520, under pressure

  • Strategy:

    • Stick with sell-on-rally

    • Short near 0.6550, target 0.6480

✅ Summary

  • Dollar remains in a strong uptrend; U.S. Retail Sales is today’s key risk event

  • USD/JPY: Buy on dips; EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Sell on rallies

  • Watch for volatility around retail data release → position sizing and stop-loss discipline are critical

More Insights

🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the Middle East remain high. Both sides — the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other — continue to signal their willingness to prolong the conflict, with no clear signs of resolution. The situation has effectively entered a phase of strategic stalemate, where each side is testing the other’s endurance. 🛢 Oil as the Key Barometer To gauge the market impact of the Middle East crisis, crude oil futures have become the most important indicator. Key concerns include: Risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz Potential disruptions to global oil supply Rising inflationary pressure However: The panic selling in equities has somewhat eased The FX market currently lacks strong directional momentum 💱 FX Market Basic structure Geopolitical crisis → USD buying But at the moment: Position adjustments Headline-driven reactions Interest rate expectations are all interacting. As a result, the market is trading in a nervous range-bound environment, with no decisive catalyst for a sustained USD rally. 🇺🇸 Trump Administration Developments Policies from President Donald Trump are also attracting market attention. Higher oil prices could lead to: Stronger inflation pressure Rising political dissatisfaction ahead of midterm elections According to reports, the administration is considering measures such as: Restrictions on Russian oil exports Intervention in oil futures markets 👉 These steps may indicate efforts to find an exit path from the conflict. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Iran may also be experiencing depletion of missiles and weapon systems. 📊 Tonight’s Major Event 🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Report (Nonfarm Payrolls) Market expectations: Indicator Forecast Previous Nonfarm Payrolls +55K +130K Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% Released simultaneously: U.S. Retail Sales Indicator Forecast Month-over-month -0.3% Ex-auto 0.0% 👉 The key focus will be deviation from expectations. However: The approaching weekend Ongoing war-related headlines may limit the durability of any market reaction. 📊 Other Economic Data Eurozone Final GDP U.S. Business Inventories Canada Ivey PMI Brazil Industrial Production 🎙 Central Bank Events Scheduled speakers include: Mary Daly Jeffrey Schmid Susan Collins Piero Cipollone Isabel Schnabel Additionally, a global central bank conference will discuss: “The U.S. dollar’s role as a safe-haven asset.” 📈 New Market Theme: Rate Hike Expectations The chain reaction: Middle East conflict → Higher oil prices → Rising inflation is bringing back interest rate hike expectations. European short-term rate market ECB rate hike probabilities: Year-end: 80% July: 50% Bank of Japan April hike probability: 50% (according to former BOJ board member Maeda) However, markets may increasingly focus on recession risks rather than rate differentials. 🧭 Summary The current market is dominated by war-related headlines. Key drivers: Oil prices Geopolitical developments U.S. employment data At the same time: Panic selling in equities has eased FX markets have lost clear direction For now, the environment can be summarized as: “Markets move on war headlines and adjust on economic data.” This dynamic is likely to continue in the near term.
March 6, 2026

🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the

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