📰 Markets Waiting on Tariff Winds
~ Quiet Day Amid U.S. Independence Day, Range-Bound Trading Expected ~
🎯 Market Summary for Today
Following the major event of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), markets are closed today (July 4) for Independence Day.
Liquidity is significantly reduced, and a range-bound trading environment is expected.
With the U.S. bond market also closed, there are few catalysts, leaving the market lacking clear direction.
The U.S. dollar is showing subdued movement across major pairs. Watch out for short-term volatility triggered by unexpected headlines.
💥 Key Focus: Trump’s Trade Signals
Markets are paying attention to President Trump’s remarks such as “letters sent on the 4th” and “tariffs to take effect from August 1”.
As the July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline approaches, negotiations with other countries are growing more tense.
Speculation of a “TACO deal” (Temporary Agreement on Critical Objectives) is also emerging.
However, the inconsistent nature of Trump’s comments is starting to dull the market’s reaction.
✅ Technical & Strategy Overview by Currency Pair
📉 Based on short- to mid-term technicals, here are today’s strategies:
💵 USD/JPY (Dollar-Yen)
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Current Price: Around 143.20
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Technical: Consolidating near the daily support zone (142.70–143.00)
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Strategy: In the absence of U.S. rate cues, expect a range around mid-143. Favor selling on rebounds.
💶 EUR/USD (Euro-Dollar)
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Current Price: Near 1.1760
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Technical: Clearly broke above the 200-day moving average, aiming to stabilize above 1.1800
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Strategy: Maintain buy-on-dip stance. Focus on rebounds near 1.1720–30.
💷 GBP/JPY (Pound-Yen)
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Current Price: Around 183.20
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Technical: Medium-term uptrend. Daily chart remains within an ascending channel
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Strategy: Divergence between UK and Japan’s monetary policy supports continued GBP buying. Buy dips as long as 182.80 holds.
🔔 Today’s Key Events
🇪🇺 ECB: Speeches from Elderson and Villeroy de Galhau
🇬🇧 BOE: Speech by MPC member Taylor
Note: U.S. markets are closed for the holiday—no speeches or data releases expected.
📝 Strategy Memo
For short-term traders, “Don’t force trades on quiet days” is key.
Favor trend-following setups rather than counter-trend plays.
Avoid overreacting to sudden trade-related news.
