Will USD/JPY Hold Above 150? Dollar Showing Signs of a “Transition Phase”
■ Dollar Weakness Has Stalled — Market Entering a New “Stronger USD Phase”
The sustained dollar weakness observed since the start of the year has now eased, and we appear to be entering a transition phase toward renewed USD strength. The term “transition” — once used by former President Trump — is fitting for the current dollar environment.
USD/JPY has firmly reclaimed the 150 level, and the next key focus is whether this yen-weak/dollar-strong regime will become firmly established. From a technical perspective, there’s a growing appetite to push higher from the 150.00 baseline.
■ USD/JPY Spikes on PMI Surprise — Triggered Yen-Long Liquidation
In the NY session yesterday, USD/JPY jumped from the low 150s to the high 150s, triggered by the release of U.S. March PMI flash data. Breakdown of the figures:
- Manufacturing PMI: Came in below expectations, dipping below 50
- Services PMI: Surpassed expectations, showing a solid rebound
- Composite PMI: 53.5 vs. 51.6 previously — above forecast
Despite mixed signals, the overall takeaway was resilience in U.S. economic momentum, prompting a wave of USD buying.
This move likely forced the unwinding of excessive yen-long positioning, resulting in a sharp USD/JPY spike through stop-loss levels.
At present, market reactions seem to reflect a higher sensitivity to positioning structures and technical triggers rather than pure macro fundamentals.
■ Today’s Focus: U.S. Housing & Confidence Data
Scheduled at 23:00 JST, today’s key U.S. releases include:
- FHFA House Price Index (Jan)
- S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Index (Jan)
- New Home Sales (Feb): 680K expected vs. 657K prior
- CB Consumer Confidence (Mar): 94.0 expected vs. 98.3 prior
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar)
Market expects firm housing data and softer consumer sentiment.
Like yesterday, price reaction — not just results — will dictate dollar direction.
■ Eurozone & EM Data Also in Focus — Watch Germany’s IFO
Non-U.S. economic releases today:
- Germany IFO Business Climate (Mar): 86.7 expected vs. 85.2 prior
- Turkey Capacity Utilization (Mar)
- South Africa BER Consumer Confidence (Q1)
- Hong Kong Trade Balance (Feb)
- Hungary Central Bank Rate Decision (Mar)
Germany’s IFO is a key sentiment indicator — any upside surprise on the back of fiscal reforms could impact euro crosses significantly.
■ Central Bank Commentary to Add Volatility Risk
Scheduled speeches from key central bankers:
- ECB: Kazimir, Müller, Holzmann, Vujčić, Nagel
- Fed: Cook, Williams (New York Fed)
Also on the calendar: $69B in U.S. 2-Year Note Auctions
With multiple sources of volatility today, avoid countertrend trades during thin liquidity windows around key releases.
■ Strategy: Maintain Yen-Sell Bias, CHF/JPY Still Has Room to Run
As anticipated, yen-long unwinding is accelerating, reinforcing our continued bearish view on the yen.
We have entered a long CHF/JPY position, expecting upside potential to remain supported by both fundamentals and technicals.
We’ll hold the position while managing stop-loss levels carefully.
