๐ FOMC Minutes and U.S.-EU Trade Talks in Focus โ Watch EUR Movement
โ Market Overview
- BOJ board member Takadaโs remarks were neutral, with limited impact on JPY.
- UK CPI exceeded market expectations, but GBP buying did not sustain.
- FOMC minutes today are expected to confirm the Fedโs cautious stance on rate cuts.
- U.S.-EU trade talks in Washington may influence EUR movement.
๐ Key Points in the Forex Market Today
๐ฏ 1. USD/JPY
๐ Trend: Range-bound
๐ Movements:
- No clear outlook for BOJ rate hikes, limiting JPY buying.
- If the FOMC minutes lean dovish, USD selling may accelerate.
๐ Key Level: Watch if the 151.50 support holds.
๐ฏ 2. EUR/USD
๐ Trend: Potential movement based on trade talks
๐ Movements:
- U.S.-EU trade negotiations in Washington take center stage.
- Tariff disputes could lead to EUR selling, while a conciliatory approach may boost EUR.
๐ Key Level: Will EUR recover 1.07, or remain in the mid-1.06 range?
๐ฏ 3. GBP/USD
๐ Trend: Weakening
๐ Movements:
- UK CPI exceeded expectations, but GBP buying was short-lived.
- BOE rate cut expectations persist, capping GBP gains.
๐ Key Level: Watch if 1.26 support holds.
๐ฏ 4. Gold (XAU/USD)
๐ Trend: Correctional selling
๐ Movements:
- Gold continues to face selling pressure as Fed rate cut expectations fade.
- FOMC minutes may determine the next move.
๐ Key Level: Testing support at $1950.
๐ Key Events Today
๐ FOMC Minutes (January 28-29 Meeting)
- Market Expectation: The Fed is likely to maintain its stance of “not rushing to cut rates.”
- Key Point: A dovish tone could lead to USD selling, while a hawkish stance may push USD higher.
๐ U.S.-EU Trade Talks (Washington)
- Market Expectation: Tariff discussions may have a major impact on EUR.
๐ Economic Indicators
- South Africa Retail Sales (Dec)
- Eurozone Current Account (Dec)
- U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications (Feb 8 – Feb 14)
- U.S. Housing Starts (Jan)
๐ Speeches & Auctions
- Fed Vice Chair Jefferson (Speech on Household Balance Sheets)
- U.S. 20-year Bond Auction ($16B)
๐ Summary
๐น FOMC minutes will determine USD direction.
๐น U.S.-EU trade talks may cause EUR volatility.
๐น UK CPI was strong, but BOE rate cut expectations limit GBP upside.
๐น Gold remains under correctional selling pressure.
๐ Conclusion: Watch EUR closely amid trade talks, and assess USD reaction post-FOMC minutes. Gold correction remains in focus.
