The dollar/yen has risen to the high 143 yen level in the Tokyo market. This week, the US consumer price index and the BOJ’s rate check afterward seem to indicate that the dollar/yen exchange rate has hit a high or low point for the time being. The top price could not be touched just 145 yen. The lower price moves to the middle of the 141 yen range. And the current price position is in the upper 143 yen range, which is in the range of strong dollar and weak yen. The market’s pricing of the slowdown in US inflation has been reversed, and the deep-rooted Japan-US interest rate differential has revived.
However, since the range view of 141.50-145.00 has been formed, new ingredients and market surprises are likely to be necessary to break out of the range.
A series of US economic indicators will be released today. New York Fed Manufacturing Index (September), Philadelphia Fed Index (September), Retail Sales (August), Import Price Index (August), Number of New Jobless Claims (09/04 – 09/10) ), industrial production index (August), corporate inventories (July), etc. Other than industrial production, it will be announced at the same time at 9:30 pm Japan time. If the overall strengths and weaknesses do not come together, the market is likely to react with trepidation. The New York Fed Index and the Philadelphia Fed Index often show results that are far from market expectations, and may surprise the market if the direction is aligned.
First, pay attention to US retail sales at 21:30 and the Philadelphia Fed’s economic index. Where I want to follow the flow after this.