A wait-and-see mood ahead of the weekend

The dollar-yen pair, which approached 145 yen on Wednesday, then moved around 144 yen, and the trend of correction prevailed in the Tokyo market today. Although the price fell below the mid-143 yen level in the London market yesterday, US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his positive attitude toward aggressive interest rate hikes in the future, and the dollar continued to appreciate, approaching the mid-144 yen level. To expand. The yen was trading around 144 yen in the Tokyo morning, but in addition to adjustments ahead of the weekend, Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said that it was a sudden change of 2 yen to 3 yen per day, and the yen Buying intensified, and the price fell below the mid-142 yen level. After that, even after recovering to the 143 yen level, the topside is generally heavy. A sense of caution over the recent rise in the dollar-yen rate has suppressed the upper price, and corrections have spread mainly among short-term investors.
 
It is possible that this trend will continue in overseas markets as well. Next week, the US consumer price index will be released on Tuesday, and growth is expected to slow for the second time since last time. Although Chairman Powell’s speech was completed yesterday and there are plans to make remarks such as Mr. Waller tonight, there will be a blackout period before the FOMC from tomorrow, and there will be no remarks by key figures, so there will be adjustments. It is also easy to enter.

Coordination movement as a whole. After passing the ECB Governing Council, the weekend and BOJ Governor Kuroda’s remarks against yen depreciation added to a major adjustment mood. We expect the adjustments to continue tonight.

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🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the Middle East remain high. Both sides — the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other — continue to signal their willingness to prolong the conflict, with no clear signs of resolution. The situation has effectively entered a phase of strategic stalemate, where each side is testing the other’s endurance. 🛢 Oil as the Key Barometer To gauge the market impact of the Middle East crisis, crude oil futures have become the most important indicator. Key concerns include: Risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz Potential disruptions to global oil supply Rising inflationary pressure However: The panic selling in equities has somewhat eased The FX market currently lacks strong directional momentum 💱 FX Market Basic structure Geopolitical crisis → USD buying But at the moment: Position adjustments Headline-driven reactions Interest rate expectations are all interacting. As a result, the market is trading in a nervous range-bound environment, with no decisive catalyst for a sustained USD rally. 🇺🇸 Trump Administration Developments Policies from President Donald Trump are also attracting market attention. Higher oil prices could lead to: Stronger inflation pressure Rising political dissatisfaction ahead of midterm elections According to reports, the administration is considering measures such as: Restrictions on Russian oil exports Intervention in oil futures markets 👉 These steps may indicate efforts to find an exit path from the conflict. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Iran may also be experiencing depletion of missiles and weapon systems. 📊 Tonight’s Major Event 🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Report (Nonfarm Payrolls) Market expectations: Indicator Forecast Previous Nonfarm Payrolls +55K +130K Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% Released simultaneously: U.S. Retail Sales Indicator Forecast Month-over-month -0.3% Ex-auto 0.0% 👉 The key focus will be deviation from expectations. However: The approaching weekend Ongoing war-related headlines may limit the durability of any market reaction. 📊 Other Economic Data Eurozone Final GDP U.S. Business Inventories Canada Ivey PMI Brazil Industrial Production 🎙 Central Bank Events Scheduled speakers include: Mary Daly Jeffrey Schmid Susan Collins Piero Cipollone Isabel Schnabel Additionally, a global central bank conference will discuss: “The U.S. dollar’s role as a safe-haven asset.” 📈 New Market Theme: Rate Hike Expectations The chain reaction: Middle East conflict → Higher oil prices → Rising inflation is bringing back interest rate hike expectations. European short-term rate market ECB rate hike probabilities: Year-end: 80% July: 50% Bank of Japan April hike probability: 50% (according to former BOJ board member Maeda) However, markets may increasingly focus on recession risks rather than rate differentials. 🧭 Summary The current market is dominated by war-related headlines. Key drivers: Oil prices Geopolitical developments U.S. employment data At the same time: Panic selling in equities has eased FX markets have lost clear direction For now, the environment can be summarized as: “Markets move on war headlines and adjust on economic data.” This dynamic is likely to continue in the near term.

🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the

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