Recently, the dollar index has been on a downward trend. Following the sharp rise in the US consumer price index, the market has begun to factor in a 1.00% rate hike for the US FOMC. At this time, the dollar’s appreciation peaked out. There was also a symbolic phenomenon such as the Eurodollar parity cracking. Since then, a series of US financial officials have supported a 0.75% rate hike, gradually turning the 0.75% rate hike into market consensus.
In addition, the lack of strength in recent US economic indicators is spreading the outlook for the future economic slowdown in the market. The drop in US service (non-manufacturing) PMI to 47.0 last weekend was a decisive hit. In addition, housing indicators such as the number of used homes sold are also sluggish due to high inflation and high interest rates.
Today, US housing-related indicators will be announced one after another. S & P Case-Shiller Home Price (May), Home Price Index (May), Number of New Homes Sold (June), etc. Home sales are expected to slow from the previous time as home prices remain high. As for economic indicators, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (July) and the US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (July) are also scheduled to be released.
Ahead of the announcement of the results of the US FOMC tomorrow, it seems that today’s series of indicators will be weak, 0.75% rate hike observation in the market
Is likely to be solid. At present, the 0.75% rate hike is about 75% and the 1.00% rate hike is about 25%.
Today, the movement is unstable due to the repurchase of the USD toward tomorrow’s FOMC.