Today, pay attention to the ECB Board of Directors

European Central Bank (ECB) policy rate
European Central Bank (ECB) Governor, regular press conference

Today, the ECB Board of Directors is drawing attention. The market is interested in whether there is an announcement to start tapering. With the current inflation rate accelerating to + 3% year-on-year, the tone of hawkish members such as the Biteman German Federation Bank is drawing attention. Last July, the ECB’s board of directors said that “inflation is picking up, but it seems to be temporary.” Inflation has accelerated since then, and it will be interesting to see if there is any change in perceptions at the Lagarde ECB Governor’s press conference.

Also, this time the ECB staff economic forecast will be announced. I would also like to check the changes in the outlook for growth and inflation. The tug of war between the resumption of economic activity and the spread of Delta strains is likely to be difficult to predict. At the last July board meeting, President Christine Lagarde said, “The economic outlook at the September board meeting will affect future policies,” and this economic forecast is an important decision.

There seems to be some speculation about the balance with the trends of the US financial authorities. FRB Chairman Powell suggested at the Jackson Hole meeting that tapering would begin later this year. However, there was no mention of a clear start time. He was cautious about rate hikes, saying that tapering and rate hikes are two different things. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 22nd. There is also a cautious view in the market after confirming the appearance of the FOMC. There is also a cautious view in the market after confirming the appearance of the FOMC. If the ECB seems to specify tapering prior to this, it is likely to lead to euro buying.

In any case, the ECB Board of Directors this time has received a lot of attention. Keep in mind that the euro can move up and down nervously

It is assumed that the price movement of EUR will be large.
It is difficult to predict which way to buy or sell, so I would like to keep calm and follow the flow.

Currently, the power balance at 15 minutes is

GBP> JPY> CHF> NZD> AUD> EUR> USD> CAD

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: