With the risk trend stabilizing, the dollar/yen remains in the 130 yen range, but there is deep-rooted selling pressure in the overall dollar market.

The US stock market is trending steadily. With Fed officials in a blackout period ahead of the US FOMC meeting in February, the market has already formed a consensus for a 25 basis point hike. The U.S. stock market is doing well. Although financial institutions were somewhat sluggish in the financial results of US companies, expectations are spreading for a series of favorable financial results of IT companies, especially the Nasdaq index is being bought.

With the risk trend stabilizing, the dollar is slowly selling in the foreign exchange market. The dollar exchange rate is steadily declining, even with some adjustments, as seen in the Tokyo market today. The EUR/USD traded above the 1.09 level on the previous day, the GBP/USD traded above the 1.24 level, and the AUD/USD traded above the 0.70 level today. Under these circumstances, the dollar-yen exchange rate continues to trade at the 130 yen level due to risk appetite’s yen-selling pressure.

In relation to the remark event, as mentioned above, US financial officials have entered a blackout period. European financial officials such as Dutch central bank governor Knot, Croatian central bank governor Vuicic and ECB governor Lagarde are scheduled to speak. Expectations of multiple 50 basis point rate hikes are widespread, and if they are reconfirmed, they are likely to support the euro.

(Source: Minkabu)

The dollar/yen pair continues to sell. In addition, the preliminary figures for the UK and Europe PMI for January were announced today. It was below 49.0 and the market forecast of 48.8, and the business sentiment fell more than expected, so I bought EURGBP earlier as outlined.

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🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the Middle East remain high. Both sides — the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other — continue to signal their willingness to prolong the conflict, with no clear signs of resolution. The situation has effectively entered a phase of strategic stalemate, where each side is testing the other’s endurance. 🛢 Oil as the Key Barometer To gauge the market impact of the Middle East crisis, crude oil futures have become the most important indicator. Key concerns include: Risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz Potential disruptions to global oil supply Rising inflationary pressure However: The panic selling in equities has somewhat eased The FX market currently lacks strong directional momentum 💱 FX Market Basic structure Geopolitical crisis → USD buying But at the moment: Position adjustments Headline-driven reactions Interest rate expectations are all interacting. As a result, the market is trading in a nervous range-bound environment, with no decisive catalyst for a sustained USD rally. 🇺🇸 Trump Administration Developments Policies from President Donald Trump are also attracting market attention. Higher oil prices could lead to: Stronger inflation pressure Rising political dissatisfaction ahead of midterm elections According to reports, the administration is considering measures such as: Restrictions on Russian oil exports Intervention in oil futures markets 👉 These steps may indicate efforts to find an exit path from the conflict. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Iran may also be experiencing depletion of missiles and weapon systems. 📊 Tonight’s Major Event 🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Report (Nonfarm Payrolls) Market expectations: Indicator Forecast Previous Nonfarm Payrolls +55K +130K Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% Released simultaneously: U.S. Retail Sales Indicator Forecast Month-over-month -0.3% Ex-auto 0.0% 👉 The key focus will be deviation from expectations. However: The approaching weekend Ongoing war-related headlines may limit the durability of any market reaction. 📊 Other Economic Data Eurozone Final GDP U.S. Business Inventories Canada Ivey PMI Brazil Industrial Production 🎙 Central Bank Events Scheduled speakers include: Mary Daly Jeffrey Schmid Susan Collins Piero Cipollone Isabel Schnabel Additionally, a global central bank conference will discuss: “The U.S. dollar’s role as a safe-haven asset.” 📈 New Market Theme: Rate Hike Expectations The chain reaction: Middle East conflict → Higher oil prices → Rising inflation is bringing back interest rate hike expectations. European short-term rate market ECB rate hike probabilities: Year-end: 80% July: 50% Bank of Japan April hike probability: 50% (according to former BOJ board member Maeda) However, markets may increasingly focus on recession risks rather than rate differentials. 🧭 Summary The current market is dominated by war-related headlines. Key drivers: Oil prices Geopolitical developments U.S. employment data At the same time: Panic selling in equities has eased FX markets have lost clear direction For now, the environment can be summarized as: “Markets move on war headlines and adjust on economic data.” This dynamic is likely to continue in the near term.

🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the

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