Dollar buying progress, money market will incorporate US interest rate hike five times this year

Dollar buying is in progress in the early part of London. In the money market, the US financial authorities are moving to factor in rate hikes five times this year. It seems that he responded to the fact that he did not deny the possibility of a rate hike at each meeting at the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference after the US FOMC yesterday. The dollar / yen pair updated its highs to the 115.18 level.

At the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference after the FOMC, it was stated that the rate would be raised immediately, suggesting that the rate hike would start in March, as the market expected. However, it seems that the market has decided that it has become more hawkish because the possibility of a rate hike at each meeting was not denied. The market did not respond to the reduction in bond purchases, although it said it would only adjust by reinvesting rather than selling.

The statement that there is a possibility of a rate hike at each meeting seems to be a common phrase when avoiding a statement about the pace of rate hikes. However, it seems to have been over-interpreted in a situation where the market was nervous about how many rate hikes would occur during the year. In addition, it seems that the lack of mention of the rate hike leaves the possibility of a significant rate hike such as 0.5%. If the intention was to avoid market shocks such as the stock market, it would be a bit unreadable.

Stocks are all cheap in the Tokyo and Asian markets. How long will risk aversion pressure continue in the European and US markets after this? It looks like it will be a patience for a while until the storm is over.

The stock market is in shock. Also pay attention to how theUSA stocks will react tonight.

The big trend is to buy USD completely, so I would like to attack the small return by buying USD.

More Insights

🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the Middle East remain high. Both sides — the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other — continue to signal their willingness to prolong the conflict, with no clear signs of resolution. The situation has effectively entered a phase of strategic stalemate, where each side is testing the other’s endurance. 🛢 Oil as the Key Barometer To gauge the market impact of the Middle East crisis, crude oil futures have become the most important indicator. Key concerns include: Risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz Potential disruptions to global oil supply Rising inflationary pressure However: The panic selling in equities has somewhat eased The FX market currently lacks strong directional momentum 💱 FX Market Basic structure Geopolitical crisis → USD buying But at the moment: Position adjustments Headline-driven reactions Interest rate expectations are all interacting. As a result, the market is trading in a nervous range-bound environment, with no decisive catalyst for a sustained USD rally. 🇺🇸 Trump Administration Developments Policies from President Donald Trump are also attracting market attention. Higher oil prices could lead to: Stronger inflation pressure Rising political dissatisfaction ahead of midterm elections According to reports, the administration is considering measures such as: Restrictions on Russian oil exports Intervention in oil futures markets 👉 These steps may indicate efforts to find an exit path from the conflict. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Iran may also be experiencing depletion of missiles and weapon systems. 📊 Tonight’s Major Event 🇺🇸 U.S. Employment Report (Nonfarm Payrolls) Market expectations: Indicator Forecast Previous Nonfarm Payrolls +55K +130K Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% Released simultaneously: U.S. Retail Sales Indicator Forecast Month-over-month -0.3% Ex-auto 0.0% 👉 The key focus will be deviation from expectations. However: The approaching weekend Ongoing war-related headlines may limit the durability of any market reaction. 📊 Other Economic Data Eurozone Final GDP U.S. Business Inventories Canada Ivey PMI Brazil Industrial Production 🎙 Central Bank Events Scheduled speakers include: Mary Daly Jeffrey Schmid Susan Collins Piero Cipollone Isabel Schnabel Additionally, a global central bank conference will discuss: “The U.S. dollar’s role as a safe-haven asset.” 📈 New Market Theme: Rate Hike Expectations The chain reaction: Middle East conflict → Higher oil prices → Rising inflation is bringing back interest rate hike expectations. European short-term rate market ECB rate hike probabilities: Year-end: 80% July: 50% Bank of Japan April hike probability: 50% (according to former BOJ board member Maeda) However, markets may increasingly focus on recession risks rather than rate differentials. 🧭 Summary The current market is dominated by war-related headlines. Key drivers: Oil prices Geopolitical developments U.S. employment data At the same time: Panic selling in equities has eased FX markets have lost clear direction For now, the environment can be summarized as: “Markets move on war headlines and adjust on economic data.” This dynamic is likely to continue in the near term.

🗞️ Middle East Conflict Stalemate — Markets Lose Direction / U.S. Jobs Report Tonight 🌍 Market Theme “War × Inflation × Uncertainty” Tensions in the

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