Technical Analysis
October 2, 2026
■ Overview
Today’s key themes are short-term selling in USD/JPY and the cross-yen pairs, a bearish reversal in crude oil, and improving signals in BTC.
USD/JPY has turned to strong sell signals from the short-term through hourly charts, reversing from the previous buy bias. EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, and CAD/JPY also show strong sell signals across all timeframes, with weakness spreading across the cross-yen pairs.
Meanwhile, the hourly signals for GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD have improved to buy. The market has shifted from broad dollar strength to diverging directions across individual currencies. However, the daily charts for all three pairs remain on strong sell signals.
In commodities, WTI crude has turned to strong sell signals across all timeframes. Gold and silver have rebounded on the hourly charts, but their strong daily sell signals remain in place.
BTC has strong buy signals from the 15-minute through daily charts. Among equity indices, the Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei maintain strong daily buy signals, while the Dow and major European indices have strong daily sell signals.
■ Main changes from the previous update
USD/JPY’s 15-minute and hourly charts have reversed from strong buy to strong sell. The daily signal has also weakened from strong buy to neutral.
GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, and CAD/JPY have lost their previous neutral or buy signals and now show strong sell signals across all timeframes.
EUR/CHF has lost its daily buy signal and now shows strong sell signals across all timeframes. AUD/NZD has lost its strong buy signals from the short-term through hourly charts and is now neutral across all timeframes.
WTI crude fell from 92.36 in the previous update to 88.85, with strong buy signals from the short-term through hourly charts turning to strong sell. The daily signal also shifted from neutral to strong sell.
BTC rose from 83,632.0 in the previous update to 86,172.0. The 15-minute and hourly signals improved from strong sell to strong buy.
The Nikkei fell from 69,046.00 in the previous update to 68,357.00. The hourly and daily buy signals remain, but the 15-minute chart has turned to strong sell.
Price changes are compared with the levels provided in the previous update.
■ Foreign exchange
EUR/USD — 1.1250
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts show strong sell signals, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart shows a strong sell signal.
The hourly sell signal has eased, but the moving averages remain bearish. A clear shift to buy has not been confirmed.
Selling on rallies remains the preferred setup. The next decision point is whether the hourly chart returns to a sell signal or improves to buy.
GBP/USD — 1.3213
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are neutral, the hourly chart shows a buy signal, and the daily chart shows a strong sell signal.
The pair has shifted from strong sell signals across all timeframes to an hourly rebound. However, the hourly moving averages are neutral; the buy signal comes from an improvement in the indicators.
This appears to be a rebound against the daily downtrend. Even when considering selling on rallies, it may be premature to sell while the hourly buy signal remains in place.
USD/JPY — 157.53
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts show strong sell signals, while the daily chart is neutral.
Moving averages and indicators agree on a sell signal from the short-term through hourly charts. The previous preference for buying dips has shifted to a short-term bias toward selling rallies.
On the daily chart, moving averages indicate sell while indicators show strong buy. It is useful to distinguish the short-term downward move from the still-unclear daily direction.
USD/CHF — 0.8282
The 5-minute chart shows a strong buy signal, the 15-minute chart is neutral, the hourly chart shows a strong sell signal, and the daily chart shows a strong buy signal.
The previous strong buy signals across all timeframes have broken down. The 5-minute chart is rebounding, but moving averages and indicators agree on a sell signal on the hourly chart.
For a daily-trend buy on dips, wait for the hourly selling pressure to ease and for buy signals to align from at least the 15-minute chart upward.
AUD/USD — 0.6944
The 5-minute chart is neutral, the 15-minute chart shows a strong buy signal, the hourly chart shows a buy signal, and the daily chart shows a strong sell signal.
Signals have improved from the short-term through hourly charts. On the 15-minute chart, both moving averages and indicators point to buy, while the hourly moving averages are neutral.
This is a rebound against the daily downtrend. Monitor whether short-term buying continues, but it is difficult to call this an uptrend reversal extending to the daily chart.
NZD/USD — 0.5618
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are neutral, the hourly chart shows a buy signal, and the daily chart shows a strong sell signal.
The hourly indicators show strong buy, but the moving averages are neutral. The alignment of short-term buy signals is weaker than in AUD/USD.
Keep the daily sell bias in view while monitoring how far the hourly rebound can extend.
■ Cross-yen pairs and relative currency strength
EUR/JPY — 177.23
Strong sell signals are in place across all timeframes. Moving averages and indicators also all agree on strong sell.
As in the previous update, the downward direction is clear from the short-term through daily charts. Selling on rallies remains the preferred setup.
GBP/JPY — 208.12
Strong sell signals are in place across all timeframes. Moving averages and indicators are fully aligned.
The previous neutral daily signal has turned to strong sell. Even though GBP/USD has an hourly buy signal, GBP/JPY is weak across all timeframes, showing different directions against the dollar and the yen.
CHF/JPY — 190.20
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts show strong sell signals, while the hourly and daily charts are neutral.
The short-term bias is bearish, but this pair differs from other cross-yen pairs where strong sell signals extend to the higher timeframes. The hourly moving averages indicate buy, while on the daily chart the moving averages indicate sell and the indicators indicate buy.
If trading the short-term decline, watch whether the hourly chart also aligns with sell.
AUD/JPY — 109.37
Strong sell signals are in place across all timeframes.
The hourly chart has moved out of neutral and now aligns with the daily direction. While AUD/USD shows a short-term rebound, the sell signals in AUD/JPY are clearly aligned.
NZD/JPY — 88.50
Strong sell signals are in place across all timeframes.
The pair remains weak from the short-term through daily charts. The improvement in NZD/USD’s hourly signal has not produced a buy signal in NZD/JPY.
CAD/JPY — 110.69
Strong sell signals are in place across all timeframes. Moving averages and indicators also all agree on strong sell.
The previous strong hourly buy signal has disappeared, bringing the pair into alignment with the daily sell direction. Among the cross-yen pairs, the sell signals here are particularly clear.
EUR/GBP — 0.8516
Strong sell signals are in place across all timeframes.
The previous neutral 15-minute signal has turned to strong sell, improving alignment across timeframes. This indicates that the pound is relatively stronger than the euro.
However, GBP/USD has a strong daily sell signal, so this should not be taken to mean that the pound is strong across the board.
AUD/NZD — 1.2359
All timeframes are neutral.
The strong buy signals from the short-term through hourly charts in the previous update have disappeared. On the hourly and daily charts, the moving averages indicate buy while the indicators indicate sell.
The relative direction between the Australian and New Zealand dollars is unclear, so wait for signals to align.
EUR/CHF — 0.9318
Strong sell signals are in place across all timeframes.
The previous daily buy signal has turned to strong sell. The Swiss franc is showing relative strength against the euro from the short-term through daily charts.
Along with EUR/GBP, this is one of the pairs clearly reflecting euro weakness.
■ Commodities
Gold spot — 4,186.68
The 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly charts show strong buy signals, while the daily chart shows a strong sell signal.
The pair has shifted from strong sell signals across all timeframes to a rebound from the short-term through hourly charts. The daily downtrend, however, remains intact.
Short-term buying and daily selling are in conflict. Even when considering selling on rallies in line with the daily trend, wait for the short-term and hourly buy signals to weaken.
Gold futures — 4,217.07
The 5-minute chart shows a strong buy signal, the 15-minute chart is neutral, the hourly chart shows a strong buy signal, and the daily chart shows a strong sell signal.
As with spot gold, the hourly signal has improved. However, on the 15-minute chart, the moving averages show strong buy while the indicators show sell.
The short-term buy signals are less aligned than in spot gold, so confirmation of a continued rebound is needed.
Silver spot — 61.1180
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts show strong sell signals, the hourly chart shows a buy signal, and the daily chart shows a strong sell signal.
The hourly chart is rebounding, but the short-term and daily charts point lower. Watch whether the hourly buy signal persists or whether it realigns with the short-term sell signals.
Silver futures — 61.472
The 5-minute chart shows a strong sell signal, the 15-minute chart shows sell, the hourly chart shows strong buy, and the daily chart shows strong sell.
The hourly buy signal is stronger than in spot silver, but it is caught between short-term and daily sell signals. Gold and silver should be approached differently from the previous update, when sell signals were aligned across all timeframes.
WTI crude — 88.85
Strong sell signals are in place across all timeframes.
The previous strong buy signals from the short-term through hourly charts have reversed, and the daily chart has also turned to strong sell. The direction is clear, making this a candidate for selling on rallies.
Avoid anchoring to the previous buy signals; base decisions on the current bearish direction.
Natural gas — 2.936
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts show strong buy signals, while the hourly and daily charts show strong sell signals.
The pair is rebounding in the short term, but weakness persists on the higher timeframes. It is a candidate for selling on rallies in line with the daily direction, though selling may be premature while short-term buying continues.
BTC/USD — 86,172.0
The 5-minute chart is neutral, while the 15-minute, hourly, and daily charts show strong buy signals.
The previous short-term and hourly sell signals have cleared, bringing the pair into alignment with the daily direction. Among the current buy candidates, its higher-timeframe alignment is clear.
On the 5-minute chart, moving averages show strong buy while indicators show sell. Watch whether the 5-minute chart also aligns with buy after a short-term pullback.
■ Equity indices
Dow Jones — 50,926.56
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are neutral, while the hourly and daily charts show strong sell signals.
The short-term sell signals have eased, but the moving averages remain bearish. Weakness on the higher timeframes persists, making this a candidate for selling on rallies.
S&P 500 — 7,666.45
The 5-minute chart shows sell, the 15-minute chart is neutral, the hourly chart shows sell, and the daily chart is neutral.
Sell signals have eased compared with the previous update, but there is no confirmed alignment toward buy. The daily chart is also neutral, so the index lacks the higher-timeframe strength seen in the Nasdaq 100.
Nasdaq 100 — 30,501.56
The 5-minute chart shows sell, the 15-minute chart shows buy, and the hourly and daily charts show strong buy.
Among the major U.S. indices, the higher-timeframe buy signals are clearest here. It is a candidate for buying dips; watch whether selling on the 5-minute chart subsides.
With the Dow showing a strong daily sell signal, avoid treating all U.S. equities as moving in the same direction.
DAX — 25,226.17
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts show strong buy signals, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart shows a strong sell signal.
The pair has shifted from short-term selling in the previous update to a rebound. However, the daily downtrend remains intact.
Short-term buying conflicts with daily selling. If considering selling on rallies, wait for short-term buying to weaken.
FTSE 100 — 10,485.58
The 5-minute chart is neutral, the 15-minute chart shows buy, and the hourly and daily charts show strong sell.
There are signs of a short-term rebound, but weakness on the higher timeframes is clear. Watch whether the 15-minute chart turns back to sell or the hourly chart improves as well.
CAC 40 — 7,910.34
The 5-minute chart shows buy, the 15-minute chart shows strong buy, and the hourly and daily charts show strong sell.
The index is rebounding in the short term, but the hourly and daily charts point lower. It remains a candidate for selling on rallies; watch whether short-term buying loses momentum.
Nikkei 225 — 68,357.00
The 5-minute chart is neutral, the 15-minute chart shows strong sell, and the hourly and daily charts show buy.
The index has shifted from strong buy signals across all timeframes in the previous update to a short-term correction. Buy signals remain on the hourly and daily charts, but the moving averages and indicators both agree on sell on the 15-minute chart.
It remains a candidate for buying dips in line with the daily trend, but wait for the 15-minute chart to improve.
■ Strength rankings
Clear higher-timeframe buy signals
• BTC/USD
• Nasdaq 100
• Nikkei 225
Rebounds against daily sell signals
• Gold and gold futures
• DAX
• AUD/USD
• GBP/USD
• NZD/USD
• Natural gas, short-term
These rebound candidates should be distinguished from instruments with buy signals aligned through the daily chart.
■ Weakness rankings
Strong sell signals across all timeframes
• EUR/JPY
• GBP/JPY
• AUD/JPY
• NZD/JPY
• CAD/JPY
• EUR/GBP
• EUR/CHF
• WTI crude
Clear sell signals from the short-term through hourly charts
• USD/JPY
Clear sell signals on the hourly and daily charts
• Dow Jones
• FTSE 100
• Natural gas
■ Trading strategy
Candidates for buying dips
BTC and the Nasdaq 100 have aligned strong buy signals on the hourly and daily charts. Watch for the short-term correction to end and for the lower-timeframe signals to turn back to buy.
The Nikkei also has buy signals on the hourly and daily charts, but the 15-minute chart shows strong sell. Wait for short-term selling to ease.
Candidates for selling on rallies
EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, CAD/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF, and WTI crude show strong sell signals across all timeframes.
USD/JPY shows strong sell signals from the short-term through hourly charts, while the daily chart is neutral. Focus any sell trades on the shorter timeframes.
For the Dow, FTSE 100, and natural gas, keep the higher-timeframe sell bias in view and look for the short-term signals to realign with sell after a rebound.
Wait for signals to align
AUD/NZD is neutral across all timeframes. The S&P 500 also lacks alignment between buy and sell signals.
USD/CHF has a strong hourly sell signal and a strong daily buy signal. In contrast, gold, silver, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD have hourly buy signals conflicting with daily sell signals.
■ Key points
USD/JPY and WTI crude, which were strong in the previous update, have turned lower, while BTC, which was weak, has improved to buy. Rather than carrying forward the previous direction, prioritize the alignment of current timeframe signals.
Sell signals are widespread across the cross-yen pairs, but holding several short positions at once would concentrate exposure to yen strength. Euro weakness is also common to EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, and EUR/CHF, so monitor shared currency exposure as well as each instrument’s individual signals.
