Today’s Technical Analysis
21 September 2026
Market Overview
The main themes today are a sharp decline in crude oil, weakness in gold and natural gas, strength in US technology stocks, and the continuing uptrend in USD/JPY.
WTI crude has plunged around 8.2%, from the US$101 range to the US$92 range. Sell signals now dominate from the short-term charts through to the daily chart, significantly damaging the prior uptrend.
Gold is also bearish from the short term through to the daily chart. Natural gas shows strong sell signals across all timeframes. Silver is undergoing a short-term correction, but its daily chart remains strongly bullish.
Among equity indices, the Nasdaq 100 is strongly bullish across all timeframes. The S&P 500, DAX and FTSE 100 are also bullish through to the hourly chart. However, the Dow is broadly bearish, widening the divergence within US equities.
In FX, EUR/USD and GBP/USD are rebounding in the short term, but their daily charts remain strongly bearish. USD/JPY is trading at 157.18; the 5-minute chart is bearish, while the hourly chart is strongly bullish and the daily chart remains bullish.
Changes Since the Previous Update
• Gold: 4,421.67 → 4,387.12, down around 0.8%
• Silver: 67.550 → 66.583, down around 1.4%
• WTI crude: 101.29 → 92.96, down around 8.2%
• Natural gas: 2.850 → 2.867, up around 0.6%
• Dow Jones: 51,778.04 → 51,682.64, down around 0.2%
• S&P 500: 7,637.76 → 7,650.50, up around 0.2%
• Nasdaq 100: 29,446.98 → 29,644.17, up around 0.7%
• DAX: 25,490.41 → 25,590.25, up around 0.4%
• FTSE 100: 10,713.78 → 10,757.81, up around 0.4%
• CAC 40: 8,107.61 → 8,140.05, up around 0.4%
• Nikkei 225: 65,114.00 → 65,018.95, down around 0.1%
The most important changes are WTI crude’s 8.2% plunge and broad-based buying in the Nasdaq 100.
Commodity Markets
Gold: 4,387.12
The 5-minute, 15-minute and hourly charts are strongly bearish, while the daily chart is bearish.
Gold’s daily chart has shifted from bullish in the previous update to bearish, bringing the short-term and daily signals into alignment on the downside. Spot gold, XAU/USD, is also strongly bearish from the 5-minute through to the hourly chart, with the daily chart bearish.
The previous advance has stalled, and selling on rallies is now favoured. However, rather than chasing the decline after a sharp move, it is preferable to wait for a rebound in the 5-minute and 15-minute charts.
Silver: 66.583
The 5-minute chart is strongly bearish, the 15-minute and hourly charts are neutral, and the daily chart remains strongly bullish.
Silver has moved from broad-based buying into a short-term correction. However, its daily uptrend remains intact, leaving it relatively stronger than gold.
With short-term selling and daily buying in conflict, a return to an hourly buy signal would make silver a potential buying-on-dips candidate. If the hourly chart turns bearish, the risk of a deeper correction would increase.
WTI Crude: 92.96
The 5-minute, 15-minute and hourly charts are strongly bearish, while the daily chart is also bearish.
WTI has fallen sharply from the US$101 range to the US$92 range. This is not simply a short-term correction; the daily uptrend has broken down.
Selling on rallies is favoured, but the size of the decline means it is not suitable to chase lower prices. It is preferable to wait for a short-term rebound, followed by a renewed sell signal on the 15-minute and hourly charts.
Natural Gas: 2.867
All timeframes show strong sell signals.
Although the price is marginally higher than in the previous update, technical conditions are broadly bearish. Selling on rallies is favoured over attempting a reversal buy.
However, buy and sell signals have been switching frequently recently, so reduced position sizing is appropriate.
Equity Indices
Dow Jones: 51,682.64
The 5-minute, 15-minute and daily charts are strongly bearish, while the hourly chart is bearish.
The Dow is the weakest major equity index. Downside signals are aligned from the short term through to the daily chart, keeping the basic bias towards selling on rallies.
S&P 500: 7,650.50
The 5-minute, 15-minute and hourly charts are strongly bullish, while the daily chart is neutral.
The uptrend is clear from the short-term charts through to the hourly chart. However, the daily chart is neutral, meaning that a full resumption of the broader uptrend has not yet been confirmed.
The S&P 500 is a short-term buying-on-dips candidate. If the daily chart turns bullish, confidence in the advance will increase.
Nasdaq 100: 29,644.17
All timeframes show strong buy signals.
The Nasdaq 100 is the clearest uptrend among the equity indices. The structure suggests that capital is shifting within US equities from the Dow towards technology shares.
Buying on dips is favoured, although caution is needed against chasing prices after buy signals have aligned from the short term through to the daily chart.
DAX: 25,590.25
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strongly bullish, the hourly chart is bullish, and the daily chart is neutral.
The DAX has reversed sharply from strong sell signals across all timeframes in the previous update. It is now a buying-on-dips candidate from the short term through to the hourly chart.
The key question for a medium- to long-term uptrend is whether the daily chart can turn bullish.
FTSE 100: 10,757.81
The 5-minute, 15-minute and hourly charts are strongly bullish, while the daily chart is neutral.
Like the DAX, the FTSE 100 has reversed from broad-based selling in the previous update. Buying is favoured from the short-term charts through to the hourly chart.
With the daily chart still neutral, it is preferable to wait for a short-term pullback rather than chase higher prices.
CAC 40: 8,140.05
The 5-minute chart is bearish, the 15-minute chart is strongly bullish, the hourly chart is bullish, and the daily chart is strongly bearish.
The CAC 40 is rebounding from the short term through to the hourly chart, but its daily downtrend remains intact. It has a greater conflict between timeframes than the other European indices.
Nikkei 225: 65,018.95
The 5-minute chart is strongly bearish, the 15-minute chart is neutral, the hourly chart is strongly bullish, and the daily chart is bullish.
The Nikkei is holding above 65,000, with the uptrend from the medium term through to the daily chart remaining intact. It is currently in a short-term profit-taking phase.
If the 5-minute sell signal fades and the 15-minute chart turns bullish, it could become a buying-on-dips candidate.
FX Markets
EUR/USD: 1.1483
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strongly bullish, the hourly chart is bullish, and the daily chart is strongly bearish.
EUR/USD is seeing a strong rebound within a daily downtrend. Short-term buying may be possible, but it remains a sell-on-rallies candidate from a medium- to long-term perspective.
GBP/USD: 1.3385
The 5-minute and 15-minute charts are strongly bullish, the hourly chart is neutral, and the daily chart is strongly bearish.
Sterling is also rebounding in the short term, but an hourly-chart bullish reversal has yet to be confirmed. The basic approach is to consider selling on rallies after the short-term rebound fades.
USD/JPY: 157.18
The 5-minute chart is strongly bearish, the 15-minute chart is bullish, the hourly chart is strongly bullish, and the daily chart is bullish.
Short-term profit-taking is emerging, but the medium-term and daily uptrend remains intact.
Buying on dips is favoured. However, intervention concerns are elevated in the 157 range, creating the risk of sharp declines. Position sizing and stop-loss management are particularly important.
USD/CHF: 0.8221
The 5-minute, 15-minute and hourly charts are strongly bearish, while the daily chart is strongly bullish.
USD/CHF is undergoing a strong short-term correction within a daily uptrend. It is preferable not to rush into buying on dips in line with the daily trend until the hourly chart turns bullish again.
AUD/USD: 0.7130
The 5-minute, 15-minute and daily charts are neutral, while the hourly chart is strongly bullish.
The Australian dollar is relatively strong among the major dollar pairs. AUD/USD is a buying-on-dips candidate from an hourly-chart perspective, but confirmation of the daily direction is needed.
NZD/USD: 0.5727
The 5-minute chart is neutral, the 15-minute and hourly charts are bullish, and the daily chart is strongly bearish.
NZD/USD is rebounding in the short term, but the daily downtrend remains intact. It is weaker than AUD/USD and remains a medium- to long-term sell-on-rallies candidate.
Cross-Yen Pairs
EUR/JPY: 180.50
The 5-minute chart is neutral, the 15-minute and hourly charts are strongly bullish, and the daily chart is bearish.
A strong rebound driven by yen selling is taking place within a daily downtrend. Short-term buying may be possible, but caution is warranted against a pullback in line with the daily trend.
GBP/JPY: 210.38
The 5-minute chart is bearish, the 15-minute and hourly charts are strongly bullish, and the daily chart is bearish.
Short-term profit-taking is emerging, but the medium-term uptrend remains intact. With the daily and hourly charts in conflict, the intended holding period should be clearly defined.
CHF/JPY: 191.24
The 5-minute, 15-minute and hourly charts are strongly bullish, while the daily chart is bearish.
The short-term and hourly uptrend is clear, but the daily bias remains downward. It is a potential short-term buying-on-dips candidate.
AUD/JPY: 112.06
The 5-minute chart is strongly bearish, the 15-minute chart is bullish, the hourly chart is strongly bullish, and the daily chart is bullish.
AUD/JPY has the strongest medium- to long-term directional alignment among the cross-yen pairs. Buying on dips is favoured, although it is best to wait for the 5-minute sell signal to fade.
NZD/JPY: 90.01
The 5-minute chart is bearish, the 15-minute and hourly charts are strongly bullish, and the daily chart is strongly bearish.
The rebound driven by yen weakness is strong, but underlying New Zealand dollar weakness continues to weigh on the daily chart.
CAD/JPY: 112.13
The 5-minute chart is strongly bearish, the 15-minute chart is bearish, the hourly chart is bullish, and the daily chart is strongly bearish.
The sharp fall in oil prices is weighing on the Canadian dollar. Although the hourly buy signal remains in place, the short-term and daily charts are bearish, leaving the direction unstable.
Other Currency Pairs
EUR/GBP: 0.8580
The 5-minute, 15-minute and hourly charts are strongly bullish, while the daily chart is neutral.
EUR/GBP has shifted towards euro strength over sterling. It is a buying-on-dips candidate from the short-term through to the hourly chart.
AUD/NZD: 1.2451
The 5-minute and daily charts are strongly bullish, while the 15-minute and hourly charts are neutral.
The medium- to long-term trend of Australian dollar strength and New Zealand dollar weakness remains intact. It is a potential buying-on-dips candidate after a short-term correction.
EUR/CHF: 0.9440
The 5-minute, 15-minute and hourly charts are strongly bearish, while the daily chart is strongly bullish.
EUR/CHF is in a short-term correction within a daily uptrend. Rather than chasing short-term selling, it is preferable to wait for the hourly chart to turn higher before considering buying on dips in line with the daily trend.
BTC/USD: 84,124
The 5-minute chart is neutral, while the 15-minute, hourly and daily charts are strongly bullish.
BTC/USD has risen sharply from the US$78,000 range to the US$84,000 range and is one of the strongest trends in the current market.
Buying on dips is favoured. However, given the size of the recent advance, it is preferable to wait for a correction on the 5-minute and 15-minute charts rather than chase higher prices.
Strength Rankings
S Rank
• Nasdaq 100
• BTC/USD
• S&P 500 short-term and hourly charts
• DAX short term
• FTSE 100 short term
• AUD/JPY hourly and daily charts
A Rank
• Nikkei 225 hourly and daily charts
• EUR/GBP short-term and hourly charts
• EUR/USD short term
• GBP/USD short term
• CHF/JPY short-term and hourly charts
• AUD/NZD daily chart
Weakness Rankings
S Rank
• WTI crude
• Natural gas
• Gold
• Dow Jones
A Rank
• XAU/USD
• USD/CHF short term
• CAD/JPY short-term and daily charts
• CAC 40 daily chart
• EUR/USD daily chart
• GBP/USD daily chart
• NZD/USD daily chart
Trading Strategy
Bullish Bias
• Nasdaq 100
• BTC/USD
• S&P 500 short term
• DAX short term
• FTSE 100 short term
• AUD/JPY
Buying-on-Dips Candidates
• Nikkei 225
• EUR/GBP
• AUD/NZD
• CHF/JPY short term
• EUR/JPY short term
• GBP/JPY short term
Selling-on-Rallies Candidates
• WTI crude
• Natural gas
• Gold
• Dow Jones
• CAD/JPY
• XAU/USD
Sell Candidates After Short-Term Rebounds
• EUR/USD
• GBP/USD
• NZD/USD
Markets Requiring Directional Confirmation
• Silver
• USD/JPY
• USD/CHF
• CAC 40
• EUR/CHF
Key Points to Watch
WTI crude has plunged around 8.2% since the previous update and has turned bearish through to the daily chart. As direction has changed frequently in recent trading, the current hourly trend should take priority rather than assuming that the previous week’s trend will continue.
BTC/USD and the Nasdaq 100 are very strong, while the Dow is broadly bearish. Risk assets are not moving uniformly; capital is concentrating in technology shares and crypto assets.
USD/JPY is bullish on the hourly and daily charts, but intervention concerns are intensifying in the 157 range. The key question is whether the hourly uptrend can remain intact even if a sharp short-term decline occurs.
If selling gold, crude oil and natural gas simultaneously, risk becomes concentrated in the same commodity-downside theme. Similarly, holding long BTC, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 positions together effectively concentrates exposure to the same risk-on theme.
