Twisted Market: Stocks Surge While USD/JPY Stalls | Middle East Risks and Intervention Fears Keep 157–158 in Focus
■ Market Overview
Global equity markets remain firmly risk-on.
- S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 hit new record highs
- Nikkei 225 surged more than 3,000 points
- Korean equities also reached fresh highs
→ AI-related momentum continues to drive a global equity rally.
However, the FX market remains highly nervous.
- Middle East tensions
- Japanese intervention concerns
→ USD/JPY continues to face resistance in the 157–158 zone.
■ FX Movement
- Dollar Index: 98.05 → 97.84
- Falling oil prices → renewed dollar selling pressure
→ Safe-haven dollar buying has partially unwound.
Still, USD/JPY continues to attract dip buyers around the 155 zone.
■ Core Market Structure
“Bullish stocks, cautious FX.”
- Equities → AI-driven optimism
- FX → unstable due to intervention risk and geopolitical uncertainty
→ There is a significant divergence in market sentiment across asset classes.
■ Middle East & Oil
- Axios reports boosted peace expectations
- Oil prices softened
However:
- The Iran issue remains unresolved
→ Middle East risk has eased, but not disappeared.
■ Key Focus (Critical)
- Battle within the 155–158 USD/JPY range
- Upcoming US-China summit next week
- Visit of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to Japan
- Tomorrow’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report
→ Markets are waiting for the next major directional catalyst.
■ Scenarios
① Peace expectations continue
→ Oil declines further
→ Dollar selling pressure continues
→ USD/JPY remains heavy
② Intervention pressure intensifies
→ 157 area capped again
→ Stronger yen pressure
③ Oil rebounds
→ Yen weakness returns
→ Risk of upside breakout from the range
■ Strategy Points
- 157–158 remains a danger zone
- Rising stocks alone are not enough to justify aggressive yen-selling
- Keep positions lighter ahead of payrolls data
■ Summary
The current market is:
“Stocks are strong, but USD/JPY cannot rise freely.”
- Middle East uncertainty and intervention fears continue to weigh on the pair
- The market is searching for the catalyst that breaks the current range
→ The key remains:
Finding the trigger for the next breakout move
