Risk Appetite Recovers but JPY Remains Unstable
USD in Correction Phase — Focus Shifts to U.S. PPI
■ Daily Summary
While the Middle East situation remains uncertain,
ongoing diplomatic efforts have led to a recovery in risk sentiment.
However:
- Oil prices remain volatile
- Sudden headline risks persist
👉 Resulting in an unstable risk-on environment
■ FX Market Overview
- JPY is strengthening despite rising equities
→ USD/JPY and cross-JPY pairs declining
👉 This reflects a reversal of “bad yen weakness”
Meanwhile:
- USD has shifted downward
👉 Safe-haven USD demand is becoming less effective
■ Core Market Structure
👉
“JPY and USD are moving under different logics”
- JPY → reacting to risk sentiment and oil (unstable)
- USD → entering a technical correction phase
👉 This creates a lack of clear directional bias
■ USD Situation
- Dollar Index → trend breakdown
- Death cross formation
- Break below 200-day moving average
👉
Uptrend has ended → correction phase underway
■ Key Focus Going Forward (Critical)
U.S. PPI (Main Event Today)
- MoM: +1.1% (forecast)
- YoY: +4.6% (forecast)
👉 Key to assessing
inflation pressure driven by higher oil prices
■ Scenario Outlook
① Strong PPI
- Inflation concerns resurface
- Yields rise
- USD rebounds
② Weak PPI
- Inflation slowdown expectations
- Continued USD weakness
③ Headline Dominance
- Data ignored
- Volatile, erratic price action
■ Trading Strategy
- ❗ JPY → difficult to read (avoid overconfidence)
- ❗ USD → focus on selling rallies
- ✅ Wait for post-PPI reaction
■ Conclusion
The current market can be summarized as:
👉
“A risk-on market that does not move cleanly”
- JPY and USD are decoupled
- Direction is unclear
🔑 Key Focus
👉 U.S. PPI
🎯 Most Important Factor
👉
Flexibility in adapting to scenario shifts
