⚠️ Market Reverses Sharply on Ceasefire Announcement — Focus on Sustainability of USD Weakness
■ Daily Overview
President Trump announced a two-week temporary ceasefire,
triggering a rapid shift toward risk-on sentiment.
- Oil: $117 → dropped to low $91 range
- US yields: declined
- Equities: surged
- FX: USD weakened
👉 The previous “war-driven USD strength” was quickly unwound
■ FX Market Developments
- USD/JPY: high 159 → dropped to low 158
- EUR/USD: rising
👉 Risk easing = clear USD selling pressure
■ Core Market Interpretation
This move represents:
👉 “Unwinding of the war premium”
However:
- Ceasefire is limited to 2 weeks
- Uncertainty remains at the operational level (e.g., IRGC)
- Regional risks persist
👉 This is NOT a fully stable risk-on environment
■ Scenario Outlook
① Ceasefire Holds (Optimism Continues)
→ Oil remains weak
→ Equities continue rising
→ USD downtrend persists
→ USD/JPY sees further downside
② Ceasefire Fragility / Breakdown Risk
→ Oil rebounds
→ War-driven USD buying returns
→ Sharp reversal (highest risk scenario)
③ Headline-Driven Market
→ Highly volatile, two-way price action
■ Key Focus Today
- London–Europe session → sustainability of reversal
- NY session → Trump comments
- FOMC Minutes
※ With limited economic data, the market is headline-driven
■ Strategy Points
- Avoid committing to a fixed USD-bearish view
- Trade both pullbacks and rallies short-term
- Assume trend can flip on a single headline
■ Summary
The current market is:
👉 “War → Ceasefire → Re-escalation” pendulum market
👉 Not a trend-driven market
👉 A news-driven market
■ Final Take
👉 The most important factors now:
Position management and speed of reaction
